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Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Joshua Daniel Loyal

This paper introduces a novel framework for causal inference in spatial economics that explicitly models the stochastic transition from partial to general equilibrium effects. We develop a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM)…

General Economics · Economics 2025-10-28 Tatsuru Kikuchi

Stochastic process models for spatiotemporal data underlying random fields find substantial utility in a range of scientific disciplines. Subsequent to predictive inference on the values of the random field (or spatial surface indexed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Aritra Halder , Didong Li , Sudipto Banerjee

A free boundary diffusive logistic model finds application in many different fields from biological invasion to wildfire propagation. However, many of these processes show a random nature and contain uncertainties in the parameters. In this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-17 M. -C. Casabán , R. Company , V. N. Egorova , L. Jódar

This paper proposes a physical-statistical modeling approach for spatio-temporal data arising from a class of stochastic convection-diffusion processes. Such processes are widely found in scientific and engineering applications where…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo , Siyuan Lu

In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Alexandra Chronopoulou , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

As a physical fact, randomness is an inherent and ineliminable aspect in all physical measurements and engineering production. As a consequence, material parameters, serving as input data, are only known in a stochastic sense and thus, also…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Hendrik Geisler , Cem Erdogan , Jan Nagel , Philipp Junker

Inference-time scaling has achieved remarkable success in language models, yet its adaptation to diffusion models remains underexplored. We observe that the efficacy of recent Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based methods largely stems from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Xun Su , Jianming Huang , Yang Yusen , Zhongxi Fang , Hiroyuki Kasai

The present paper provides a study of high-dimensional statistical arbitrage that combines factor models with the tools from stochastic control, obtaining closed-form optimal strategies which are both interpretable and computationally…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-25 Jorge Guijarro-Ordonez

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-06 Tom E. Lowe , Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools

Stochastic, spatially extended models for predator-prey interaction display spatio-temporal structures that are not captured by the Lotka-Volterra mean-field rate equations. These spreading activity fronts reflect persistent correlations…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-09 Uwe C. Täuber

Natural disasters may have considerable impact on society as well as on (re)insurance industry. Max-stable processes are ideally suited for the modeling of the spatial extent of such extreme events, but it is often assumed that there is no…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-29 Paul Embrechts , Erwan Koch , Christian Robert

In this article we focus on dynamic network data which describe interactions among a fixed population through time. We model this data using the latent space framework, in which the probability of a connection forming is expressed as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kathryn Turnbull , Christopher Nemeth , Matthew Nunes , Tyler McCormick

The matrix exponential spatial models exhibit similarities to the conventional spatial autoregressive model in spatial econometrics but offer analytical, computational, and interpretive advantages. This paper provides a comprehensive review…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Ye Yang , Osman Dogan , Suleyman Taspinar , Fei Jin

It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-09-20 Uwe C. Tauber

Efficiently modeling spatio-temporal (ST) physical processes and observations presents a challenging problem for the deep learning community. Many recent studies have concentrated on meticulously reconciling various advantages, leading to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Hao Wu , Yuxuan Liang , Wei Xiong , Zhengyang Zhou , Wei Huang , Shilong Wang , Kun Wang

The primary objective of Stochastic Frontier (SF) Analysis is the deconvolution of the estimated composed error terms into noise and inefficiency. Assuming a parametric production function (e.g. Cobb-Douglas, Translog, etc.), might lead to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Rouven Schmidt , Thomas Kneib

Experiments in predator-prey systems show the emergence of long-term cycles. Deterministic model typically fails in capturing these behaviors, which emerge from the microscopic interplay of individual based dynamics and stochastic effects.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-03 Giacomo Albi , Roberto Chignola , Federica Ferrarese