Related papers: Practical Bayesian Algorithm Execution via Posteri…

To design Bayesian studies, criteria for the operating characteristics of posterior analyses - such as power and the type I error rate - are often assessed by estimating sampling distributions of posterior probabilities via simulation. In…

We study Bayesian optimal control of a general class of smoothly parameterized Markov decision problems. Since computing the optimal control is computationally expensive, we design an algorithm that trades off performance for computational…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) performs statistical inference for otherwise intractable probability models by accepting parameter proposals when corresponding simulated datasets are sufficiently close to the observations. Producing…

Gaussian Process based Bayesian Optimization is a well-known sample efficient sequential strategy for globally optimizing black-box, expensive, and multi-extremal functions. The role of the Gaussian Process is to provide a probabilistic…

Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic…

We propose a Bayesian optimization algorithm for objective functions that are sums or integrals of expensive-to-evaluate functions, allowing noisy evaluations. These objective functions arise in multi-task Bayesian optimization for tuning…

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions by combining prior knowledge with ongoing function evaluations. BO constructs a probabilistic surrogate model of the objective function given the covariates,…

Recent advances have extended the scope of Bayesian optimization (BO) to expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions with dozens of dimensions, aspiring to unlock impactful applications, for example, in the life sciences, neural architecture…

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Bayesian Optimization using Gaussian Processes is a popular approach to deal with the optimization of expensive black-box functions. However, because of the a priori on the stationarity of the covariance matrix of classic Gaussian…

We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and…

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Leveraging the wealth of unlabeled data produced in recent years provides great potential for improving supervised models. When the cost of acquiring labels is high, probabilistic active learning methods can be used to greedily select the…

Empirical Bayes methods have been around for a long time and have a wide range of applications. These methods provide a way in which historical data can be aggregated to provide estimates of the posterior mean. This thesis revisits some of…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a set of techniques for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible. This work presents a simple yet effective ABC algorithm based on the…

We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…