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The extensive adoption of web technologies in the finance and investment sectors has led to an explosion of financial data, which contributes to the complexity of the forecasting task. Traditional machine learning models exhibit limitations…
We consider in this paper the semiparametric mixture of two distributions equal up to a shift parameter. The model is said to be semiparametric in the sense that the mixed distribution is not supposed to belong to a parametric family. In…
A fundamental problem in statistics is estimating the shape matrix of an Elliptical distribution. This generalizes the familiar problem of Gaussian covariance estimation, for which the sample covariance achieves optimal estimation error.…
In this study I briefly illustrate application of the Gaussian mixtures to approximate empirical distributions of financial indices (DAX, Dow Jones, Nikkei, RTSI, S&P 500). The resulting distributions illustrate very high quality of…
The method of "random Fourier features (RFF)" has become a popular tool for approximating the "radial basis function (RBF)" kernel. The variance of RFF is actually large. Interestingly, the variance can be substantially reduced by a simple…
A principled framework to generalize variational perturbation approximations (VPA's) formulated within the ambit of the nonadditive statistics of Tsallis statistics, is introduced. This is accomplished by operating on the terms constituting…
In an undirected graph $G=(V,E)$, we say $(A,B)$ is a pair of perfectly matched sets if $A$ and $B$ are disjoint subsets of $V$ and every vertex in $A$ (resp. $B$) has exactly one neighbor in $B$ (resp. $A$). The size of a pair of perfectly…
A Fixed-Parameter Tractable (\FPT) $\rho$-approximation algorithm for a minimization (resp. maximization) parameterized problem $P$ is an FPT algorithm that, given an instance $(x, k)\in P$ computes a solution of cost at most $k \cdot…
We present a graph-regularized learning of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) in distributed settings with heterogeneous and limited local data. The method exploits a provided similarity graph to guide parameter sharing among nodes, avoiding…
We present a novel approach for predicting the distribution of asset returns using a quantile-based method with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our model is designed in two stages: the first focuses on predicting the quantiles of…
Models of biological systems often have many unknown parameters that must be determined in order for model behavior to match experimental observations. Commonly-used methods for parameter estimation that return point estimates of the…
Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a widely researched topic with broad applications in weather forecasting, traffic control, and stock price prediction. Extreme values in time series often significantly impact human and natural systems, but…
Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation, but it is generally only guaranteed to find its stationary points of the log-likelihood objective. The goal of this article is to present…
Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case…
The recent emergence of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum has posed possible alternatives to global payments as well as financial assets around the globe, making investors and financial regulators aware of the importance of…
We consider a new method for estimating the parameters of univariate Gaussian mixture models. The method relies on a nonparametric density estimator $\hat{f}_n$ (typically a kernel estimator). For every set of Gaussian mixture components,…
The generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a three parameter family that describes the asymptotic behaviour of properly renormalised maxima of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. If the shape…
In this letter, we revisit the problem of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of parameters of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and show a new derivation for its parameters. The new derivation, unlike the classical approach employing the…
We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the…