Related papers: Assessment of Abrupt Shifts in CMIP6 Models using …
Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In…
The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…
Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…
Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…
With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…
With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…
There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation,…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative…
Climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, significant differences in climate model projections for given scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to hinder detailed assessment. Here we…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
Two methods for detecting abrupt shifts in the variance, Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) and Sequential Regime Shift Detector (SRSD), have been compared on both synthetic and observed time series. In Monte Carlo experiments,…
Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…