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Constant-stepsize stochastic approximation (SA) is widely used in learning for computational efficiency. For a fixed stepsize, the iterates typically admit a stationary distribution that is rarely tractable. Prior work shows that as the…
We introduce a novel Gibbs Markov random field for spatial data on Cartesian grids based on the modified planar rotator (MPR) model of statistical physics. The MPR captures spatial correlations using nearest-neighbor interactions of…
Dependency networks (Heckerman et al., 2000) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex systems with many variables by combining independently learned local conditional distributions through pseudo-Gibbs sampling. Despite their…
Bayesian estimation of Gaussian graphical models has proven to be challenging because the conjugate prior distribution on the Gaussian precision matrix, the G-Wishart distribution, has a doubly intractable partition function. Recent…
We calculate exactly the quantum mechanical, temporal Wigner quasiprobability density for a single-mode, degenerate parametric amplifier for a system in the Gaussian state, viz., a displaced-squeezed thermal state. The Wigner function…
We derive explicit lower and upper bounds for the probability generating functional of a stationary locally stable Gibbs point process, which can be applied to summary statistics like the F function. For pairwise interaction processes we…
A Markov tree is a probabilistic graphical model for a random vector indexed by the nodes of an undirected tree encoding conditional independence relations between variables. One possible limit distribution of partial maxima of samples from…
Boundary constraints in physical, environmental and engineering models restrict smooth states such as temperature to follow known physical laws at the edges of their spatio-temporal domain. Examples include fixed-state or fixed-derivative…
Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…
Linear fractional Galton-Watson branching processes in i.i.d.~random environment are, on the quenched level, intimately connected to random difference equations by the evolution of the random parameters of their linear fractional marginals.…
We derive an explicit link between Gaussian Markov random fields on metric graphs and graphical models, and in particular show that a Markov random field restricted to the vertices of the graph is, under mild regularity conditions, a…
In this paper, we study fluctuations of conditionally centered statistics of the form $$N^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^N c_i(g(\sigma_i)-\mathbb{E}_N[g(\sigma_i)|\sigma_j,j\neq i])$$ where $(\sigma_1,\ldots ,\sigma_N)$ are sampled from a dependent…
Conditional density estimation is complicated by multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled nonparametric framework with calibrated uncertainty, but standard GP regression is…
Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…
Falsification is the basis for testing existing hypotheses, and a great danger is posed when results incorrectly reject our prior notions (false positives). Though nonparametric and nonlinear exploratory methods of uncovering coupling…
Gaussian processes are the gold standard for many real-world modeling problems, especially in cases where a model's success hinges upon its ability to faithfully represent predictive uncertainty. These problems typically exist as parts of…
We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of…
In this paper we show that the limiting distribution of the real and the imaginary part of the double Fourier transform of a stationary random field is almost surely an independent vector with Gaussian marginal distributions, whose variance…
This report presents some fundamental mathematical results towards elucidating the information-geometric underpinnings of evolutionary modelling schemes for (quasi-)stationary discrete stochastic processes. The model class under…
Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) encode conditional dependencies among random variables using a graph -nodes for variables, links for dependencies- and factorize the joint distribution into lower-dimensional components. This makes PGMs…