Related papers: Glauber dynamics and coupling-from-the-past for Ga…

Several classical results on boundary crossing probabilities of Brownian motion and random walks are extended to asymptotically Gaussian random fields, which include sums of i.i.d. random variables with multidimensional indices,…

We give a new method for generating perfectly random samples from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. The method is related to coupling from the past (CFTP), but only runs the Markov chain forwards in time, and never restarts it…

In order to study the stochastic Markov processes conditioned on a specific value of a time-integrated observable, the concept of ensembles of trajectories has been recently used extensively. In this paper, we consider a generic…

Normalizing flows are a widely used class of latent-variable generative models with a tractable likelihood. Affine-coupling (Dinh et al, 2014-16) models are a particularly common type of normalizing flows, for which the Jacobian of the…

Extreme environmental phenomena such as major precipitation events manifestly exhibit spatial dependence. Max-stable processes are a class of asymptotically-justified models that are capable of representing spatial dependence among extreme…

We show that the Potts model on a graph can be approximated by a sequence of independent and identically distributed spins in terms of Wasserstein distance at high temperatures. We prove a similar result for the Curie--Weiss--Potts model on…

A continuous-time Markov process $X$ can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time $T > 0$ using Doob's $h$-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of $X$. The effect of the $h$-transform…

We consider a stationary queueing process $Q_X$ fed by a centered Gaussian process $X$ with stationary increments and variance function satisfying classical regularity conditions. A criterion when, for a given function $f$, $\mathbb P…

Multivariate Gaussian distributions enjoy Gaussian conditional distributions that makes conditioning easy: conditioning boils down to implementing analytical formulae for conditional means and covariances. For more general distributions,…

In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

In this paper we consider the problem of learning undirected graphical models from data generated according to the Glauber dynamics. The Glauber dynamics is a Markov chain that sequentially updates individual nodes (variables) in a…

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an…

We present a review of some recent results on estimation of location parameter for several models of observations with cusp-type singularity at the change point. We suppose that the cusp-type models fit better to the real phenomena…

This paper presents a fractional generalized Cauchy process (FGCP) with an additive and a multiplicative Gaussian white noise for describing subordinated anomalous fluctuations. The FGCP displays intermittent dynamics during random time…

We develop an advanced mean field method for approximating averages in probabilistic data models that is based on the TAP approach of disorder physics. In contrast to conventional TAP, where the knowledge of the distribution of couplings…

For spatial and network data, we consider models formed from a Markov random field (MRF) structure and the specification of a conditional distribution for each observation. Fast simulation from such MRF models is often an important…

We study the asymptotic distribution of the output of a stable Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) system driven by a non-Gaussian stochastic input. Motivated by longstanding heuristics in the stochastic describing function method, we rigorously…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

The foundations of the Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) distributions for describing equilibrium statistical mechanics of systems are examined. Broadly, they fall into: (i) probabilistic paaroaches based on the principle of equal a priori probability…

We propose a mean-field (MF) approximation for the recurrence relation governing the dynamics of $m$ species of particles on a square lattice, and we simultaneously perform Monte Carlo (MC) simulations under identical initial conditions to…