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We give a near-linear time sampler for the Gibbs distribution of the ferromagnetic Ising models with edge activities $\boldsymbol{\beta} > 1$ and external fields $\boldsymbol{\lambda}<1$ (or symmetrically, $\boldsymbol{\lambda}>1$) on…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Xiaoyu Chen , Xinyuan Zhang

Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-30 Vincent Adam

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

We study various classes of random processes defined on the regular tree $T_d$ that are invariant under the automorphism group of $T_d$. Most important ones are factor of i.i.d. processes (randomized local algorithms), branching Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-28 Ágnes Backhausz , Balázs Szegedy

We introduce a flexible framework for modeling dependent feature allocations. Our approach addresses limitations in traditional nonparametric methods by directly modeling the logit-probability surface of the feature paintbox, enabling the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Bernardo Flores , Yang Ni , Yanxun Xu , Peter Müller

Gradient matching with Gaussian processes is a promising tool for learning parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODE's). The essence of gradient matching is to model the prior over state variables as a Gaussian process which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-25 Nico S. Gorbach , Stefan Bauer , Joachim M. Buhmann

The Collective Graphical Model (CGM) models a population of independent and identically distributed individuals when only collective statistics (i.e., counts of individuals) are observed. Exact inference in CGMs is intractable, and previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-21 Li-Ping Liu , Daniel Sheldon , Thomas G. Dietterich

Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modelling of spatial extremes. Several representations of max-stable random fields have been proposed in the literature. For statistical inference it is often assumed that…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-25 Richard A. Davis , Claudia Klüppelberg , Christina Steinkohl

We consider the behavior of an Ising ferromagnet obeying the Glauber dynamics under the influence of a fast switching, random external field. After introducing a general formalism for describing such systems, we consider here the mean-field…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 J. Hausmann , P. Rujan

Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-31 Vincent Dutordoir , Hugh Salimbeni , Marc Deisenroth , James Hensman

Markov models lie at the interface between statistical independence in a probability distribution and graph separation properties. We review model selection and estimation in directed and undirected Markov models with Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-03 Irene Córdoba , Concha Bielza , Pedro Larrañaga

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-09 Grégoire Clarté , Christian P. Robert , Robin Ryder , Julien Stoehr

The Gibbs sampler (GS) is a crucial algorithm for approximating complex calculations, and it is justified by Markov chain theory, the alternating projection theorem, and $I$-projection, separately. We explore the equivalence between these…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-15 Kun-Lin Kuo , Yuchung J. Wang

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-02 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

Large interacting systems in biology often exhibit emergent dynamics, such as coexistence of multiple time scales, manifested by fat tails in the distribution of waiting times. While existing tools in statistical inference, such as maximum…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Sampling a probability distribution with an unknown normalization constant is a fundamental problem in computational science and engineering. This task may be cast as an optimization problem over all probability measures, and an initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-12 Yifan Chen , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

The mean field methods, which entail approximating intractable probability distributions variationally with distributions from a tractable family, enjoy high efficiency, guaranteed convergence, and provide lower bounds on the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Eric P. Xing , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

We study Gibbs partition models, also known as composition schemes. Our main results comprehensively describe their phase diagram, including a phase transition from the convergent case described in Stufler (2018, Random Structures \&…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Benedikt Stufler

We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-19 Simon Lee Dettmer , Johannes Berg