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Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Joe Watson , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

We introduce a new, rigorously-formulated Bayesian meta-learning algorithm that learns a probability distribution of model parameter prior for few-shot learning. The proposed algorithm employs a gradient-based variational inference to infer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Cuong Nguyen , Thanh-Toan Do , Gustavo Carneiro

Deep learning methods continue to have a decided impact on machine learning, both in theory and in practice. Statistical theoretical developments have been mostly concerned with approximability or rates of estimation when recovering…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-07 Yuexi Wang , Veronika Ročková

Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-28 Nick Pawlowski , Andrew Brock , Matthew C. H. Lee , Martin Rajchl , Ben Glocker

In real world machine learning applications, testing data may contain some meaningful new categories that have not been seen in labeled training data. To simultaneously recognize new data categories and assign most appropriate category…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-11 Changying Du , Fuzhen Zhuang , Jia He , Qing He , Guoping Long

Large-scale linear models are ubiquitous throughout machine learning, with contemporary application as surrogate models for neural network uncertainty quantification; that is, the linearised Laplace method. Alas, the computational cost…

Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , Lucas Vogels , S. Ilker Birbil

Deep learning methods are known to generalize well from training to future data, even in an overparametrized regime, where they could easily overfit. One explanation for this phenomenon is that even when their *ambient dimensionality*,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Hossein Zakerinia , Dorsa Ghobadi , Christoph H. Lampert

The Gauss-Newton matrix is widely viewed as a positive semidefinite approximation of the Hessian, yet mounting empirical evidence shows that Gauss-Newton descent outperforms Newton's method. We adopt a function space perspective to analyze…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Maricela Best McKay , Nathan P. Lawrence , Brian Wetton , R. Bhushan Gopaluni

The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) approximation is often used to make practical Bayesian deep learning approaches scalable by replacing a second order derivative with a product of first order derivatives. In this paper we argue that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Alexander Immer , Maciej Korzepa , Matthias Bauer

Deep kernel learning (DKL) and related techniques aim to combine the representational power of neural networks with the reliable uncertainty estimates of Gaussian processes. One crucial aspect of these models is an expectation that, because…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-08 Sebastian W. Ober , Carl E. Rasmussen , Mark van der Wilk

In the matrix sensing problem, one wishes to reconstruct a matrix from (possibly noisy) observations of its linear projections along given directions. We consider this model in the high-dimensional limit: while previous works on this model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-13 Yizhou Xu , Antoine Maillard , Lenka Zdeborová , Florent Krzakala

Motivated by big data and the vast parameter spaces in modern machine learning models, optimisation approaches to Bayesian inference have seen a surge in popularity in recent years. In this paper, we address the connection between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-18 Lachlan Astfalck , Cassandra Bird , Daniel Williamson

We introduce a new method for learning Bayesian neural networks, treating them as a stack of multivariate Bayesian linear regression models. The main idea is to infer the layerwise posterior exactly if we know the target outputs of each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-20 Richard Kurle , Alexej Klushyn , Ralf Herbrich

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yijie Zhang

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) allow rigorous uncertainty quantification in deep learning, but often come at a prohibitive computational cost. We propose three different innovative architectures of partial trace-class Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Arran Carter , Torben Sell

As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Stefan T. Radev , Andreas Voss , Eva Marie Wieschen , Paul-Christian Bürkner

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

One of the goals of current particle physics research is to obtain evidence for new physics, that is, physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM), at accelerators such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The searches for new physics are…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-07-12 Braden Kronheim , Michelle Kuchera , Harrison Prosper , Alexander Karbo