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We introduce a novel Bayesian framework for estimating time-varying volatility by extending the Random Walk Stochastic Volatility (RWSV) model with Dynamic Shrinkage Processes (DSP) in log-variances. Unlike the classical Stochastic…
Circular data arise in many areas of application. Recently, there has been interest in looking at circular data collected separately over time and over space. Here, we extend some of this work to the spatio-temporal setting, introducing…
We propose a fast and flexible method to scale multivariate return volatility predictions up to high-dimensions using a dynamic risk factor model. Our approach increases parsimony via time-varying sparsity on factor loadings and is able to…
Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…
We introduce a mixed-effects model to learn spatiotempo-ral patterns on a network by considering longitudinal measures distributed on a fixed graph. The data come from repeated observations of subjects at different time points which take…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…
The problem of broad practical interest in spatiotemporal data analysis, i.e., discovering interpretable dynamic patterns from spatiotemporal data, is studied in this paper. Towards this end, we develop a time-varying reduced-rank vector…
Fitting statistical models to spatiotemporal data requires finding the right balance between imposing smoothness and following the data. In the context of p-splines, we propose a Bayesian framework for choosing the smoothing parameter which…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…
We introduce deep Markov spatio-temporal factorization (DMSTF), a generative model for dynamical analysis of spatio-temporal data. Like other factor analysis methods, DMSTF approximates high dimensional data by a product between time…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
This paper develops a dynamic factor model in which common level and volatility factors evolve jointly, allowing conditional means and variances to interact endogenously within a large-information setting. The joint evolution of these…
Multivariate spatio-temporal data arise more and more frequently in a wide range of applications; however, there are relatively few general statistical methods that can readily use that incorporate spatial, temporal and variable…
Our article considers a regression model with observed factors. The observed factors have a flexible stochastic volatility structure that has separate dynamics for the volatilities and the correlation matrix. The correlation matrix of the…
This paper considers a class of GMM estimators for general dynamic panel models, allowing for weakly exogenous covariates and cross sectional dependence due to spatial lags, unspecified common shocks and time-varying interactive effects. We…
We describe a novel method for modeling non-stationary multivariate time series, with time-varying conditional dependencies represented through dynamic networks. Our proposed approach combines traditional multi-scale modeling and network…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…