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Related papers: Building Conformal Prediction Intervals with Appro…

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We compare two recently proposed methods that combine ideas from conformal inference and quantile regression to produce locally adaptive and marginally valid prediction intervals under sample exchangeability (Romano et al., 2019;…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 Matteo Sesia , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Recently we extended Approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm to be able to handle general invariant matrix ensembles. In this contribution we extend our S-AMP approach to non-linear observation models. We obtain generalized AMP (GAMP)…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-01-27 Burak Çakmak , Ole Winther , Bernard H. Fleury

In this work, a Bayesian approximate message passing algorithm is proposed for solving the multiple measurement vector (MMV) problem in compressive sensing, in which a collection of sparse signal vectors that share a common support are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-01-29 Justin Ziniel , Philip Schniter

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-08 Ryan J. Tibshirani , Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression Neural Networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Harris Papadopoulos , Haris Haralambous

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Chao Gao , Liren Shan , Vaidehi Srinivas , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Derck W. E. Prinzhorn , Thijmen Nijdam , Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

It is common in machine learning to estimate a response $y$ given covariate information $x$. However, these predictions alone do not quantify any uncertainty associated with said predictions. One way to overcome this deficiency is with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Chancellor Johnstone , Eugene Ndiaye

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Zhongjun Qu , Wendun Wang , Xiaomeng Zhang

We introduce a theoretical approach for designing generalizations of the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for compressed sensing which are valid for large observation matrices that are drawn from an invariant random matrix…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-05-12 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper , Ole Winther , Bernard H. Fleury

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-07 Jungbin Jun , Ilsang Ohn

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Shai Feldman , Yaniv Romano

Accurate estimation of order fulfillment time is critical for e-commerce logistics, yet traditional rule-based approaches often fail to capture the inherent uncertainties in delivery operations. This paper introduces a novel framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Tinghan Ye , Amira Hijazi , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Orthogonal/vector approximate message-passing (AMP) is a powerful message-passing (MP) algorithm for signal reconstruction in compressed sensing. This paper proves the convergence of Bayes-optimal orthogonal/vector AMP in the large system…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-04-26 Keigo Takeuchi

In this work we aim to solve the compressed sensing problem for the case of a complex unknown vector by utilizing the Bayesian-optimal structured signal approximate message passing (BOSSAMP) algorithm on the jointly sparse real and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-11-30 Gabor Hannak , Martin Mayer , Gerald Matz , Norbert Goertz

Heuristic tools from statistical physics have been used in the past to locate the phase transitions and compute the optimal learning and generalization errors in the teacher-student scenario in multi-layer neural networks. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Benjamin Aubin , Antoine Maillard , Jean Barbier , Florent Krzakala , Nicolas Macris , Lenka Zdeborová