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We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Huy Nguyen , Prince Grover , Devashish Khatwani

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

In this paper, we consider a setting where heterogeneous agents with connectivity are performing inference using unlabeled streaming data. Observed data are only partially informative about the target variable of interest. In order to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Mert Kayaalp , Yunus Inan , Visa Koivunen , Ali H. Sayed

We provide new results for nonparametric identification, estimation, and inference of causal effects using `proxy controls': observables that are noisy but informative proxies for unobserved confounding factors. Our analysis applies to…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-22 Ben Deaner

Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Marios Papamichalis , Abhishek Ray , Ilias Bilionis , Karthik Kannan , Rajiv Krishnamurthy

Estimating total treatment effects in the presence of network interference typically requires knowledge of the underlying interaction structure. However, in many practical settings, network data is either unavailable, incomplete, or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Albert Tan , Sadegh Shirani , James Nordlund , Mohsen Bayati

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Bell's theorem, a cornerstone of quantum theory, shows that quantum correlations are incompatible with a classical theory of cause and effect. Through the lens of causal inference, it can be understood as a particular case of causal…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-05-30 Pedro Lauand , Bereket Ngussie Bekele , Elie Wolfe

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

Improving public policy is one of the key roles of governments, and they can do this in an evidence-based way using administrative data. Causal inference for observational data improves on current practice of using descriptive or predictive…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-18 Elena Tartaglia , Peter Rankin

Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Sofia L. Vega , Rachel C. Nethery

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Causal inference is a vital aspect of multiple scientific disciplines and is routinely applied to high-impact applications such as medicine. However, evaluating the performance of causal inference methods in real-world environments is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Mathieu Chevalley , Yusuf Roohani , Arash Mehrjou , Jure Leskovec , Patrick Schwab