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Modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies in correlated traffic series is essential for traffic prediction. While recent works have shown improved prediction performance by using neural networks to extract spatiotemporal correlations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Junpeng Lin , Ziyue Li , Zhishuai Li , Lei Bai , Rui Zhao , Chen Zhang

Causal Bayesian networks are widely used tools for summarising the dependencies between variables and elucidating their putative causal relationships. By restricting the search to trees, for example, learning the optimum from data is…

Computation · Statistics 2025-03-10 Felix L. Rios , Giusi Moffa , Jack Kuipers

The past two decades have seen a growing interest in combining causal information, commonly represented using causal graphs, with machine learning models. Probability trees provide a simple yet powerful alternative representation of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Tue Herlau

Although there is a rapidly growing literature on dynamic connectivity methods, the primary focus has been on separate network estimation for each individual, which fails to leverage common patterns of information. We propose novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-15 Suprateek Kundu , Jin Ming , Joe Nocera , Keith M. McGregor

Gaussian graphical models provide a powerful framework to reveal the conditional dependency structure between multivariate variables. The process of uncovering the conditional dependency network is known as structure learning. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Lucas Vogels , Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , S. Ilker Birbil

Bayesian networks represent relations between variables using a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Learning the DAG is an NP-hard problem and exact learning algorithms are feasible only for small sets of variables. We propose two scalable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Pierre Gillot , Pekka Parviainen

Learning the dynamic causal structure of time series is a challenging problem. Most existing approaches rely on distributional or structural invariance to uncover underlying causal dynamics, assuming stationary or partially stationary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Dezhi Yang , Qiaoyu Tan , Carlotta Domeniconi , Jun Wang , Lizhen Cui , Guoxian Yu

Understanding real-world dynamical phenomena remains a challenging task. Across various scientific disciplines, machine learning has advanced as the go-to technology to analyze nonlinear dynamical systems, identify patterns in big data, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Kevin Linka , Amelie Schafer , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , George Em Karniadakis , Ellen Kuhl

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their generative modeling nature and powerful data representation ability. In this paper, we review different structures of deep directed generative models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-16 Siqi Nie , Meng Zheng , Qiang Ji

We propose a multinomial logistic regression model for link prediction in a time series of directed binary networks. To account for the dynamic nature of the data we employ a dynamic model for the model parameters that is strongly connected…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-05 Brenda Betancourt , Abel Rodríguez , Naomi Boyd

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-28 David Zapata Gonzalez , Marcel Meyer , Oliver Mueller

The graph of a Bayesian Network (BN) can be machine learned, determined by causal knowledge, or a combination of both. In disciplines like bioinformatics, applying BN structure learning algorithms can reveal new insights that would…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Anthony C. Constantinou , Norman Fenton , Martin Neil

Real-life statistical samples are often plagued by selection bias, which complicates drawing conclusions about the general population. When learning causal relationships between the variables is of interest, the sample may be assumed to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-15 Angelos P. Armen , Robin J. Evans

Bayesian networks, with structure given by a directed acyclic graph (DAG), are a popular class of graphical models. However, learning Bayesian networks from discrete or categorical data is particularly challenging, due to the large…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 Jiaying Gu , Fei Fu , Qing Zhou

The standard approach to answering an identifiable causal-effect query (e.g., $P(Y|do(X)$) when given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Anna Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian , Rina Dechter

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and iterative algorithms based on topological orders to solve optimization problems with acyclic constraints on a directed graph. The proposed MIP model has a significantly lower number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-02 Young Woong Park , Diego Klabjan

Differential Networks (DNs), tools that encapsulate interactions within intricate systems, are brought under the Bayesian lens in this research. A novel na{\i}ve Bayesian adaptive graphical elastic net (BAE) prior is introduced to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 J. Smith , A. Bekker , M. Arashi

We extend the empirical results from the structural equation model (SEM) published in the paper Assortment Planning for Retail Buying, Retail Store Operations, and Firm Performance [1] by implementing the directed acyclic graph as a causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-01 F. Trevor Rogers