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Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 George Whittle , Juliusz Ziomek , Jacob Rawling , Maike A. Osborne

Consider semiparametric models that display local asymptotic exponentiality (Ibragimov and Has'minskii (1981)), an asymptotic property of the likelihood associated with discontinuities of densities. Our interest goes to estimation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-19 Bas Kleijn , Bartek Knapik

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Ismaël Castillo , Stéphanie van der Pas

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models by assuming a quasi-likelihood approach driven by a latent factor process. More specifically, given the latent process, we only specify the conditional mean and variance of the time…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Gisele O. Maia , Wagner Barreto-Souza , Fernando S. Bastos , Hernando Ombao

We develop a semiparametric framework for inference on the mean response in missing-data settings using a corrected posterior distribution. Our approach is tailored to Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), which is a powerful…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

In the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature, many examples have been reported in which Bayesian estimators and posterior distributions do not achieve the optimal convergence rate, indicating that the Bernstein-von Mises theorem does not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yongdai Kim , Jaeyong Lee

We consider the statistical inverse problem of recovering an unknown function $f$ from a linear measurement corrupted by additive Gaussian white noise. We employ a nonparametric Bayesian approach with standard Gaussian priors, for which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-20 Matteo Giordano , Hanne Kekkonen

Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

We prove a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for a general class of high dimensional nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems in the vanishing noise limit. We propose a sufficient condition on the growth rate of the number of unknown parameters under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-06 Yulong Lu

The inferential model (IM) framework offers an alternative to the classical probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. A key distinction is that classical uncertainty quantification…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Ryan Martin , Jonathan P. Williams

Recent developments in statistical regression methodology shift away from pure mean regression towards distributional regression models. One important strand thereof is that of conditional transformation models (CTMs). CTMs infer the entire…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-24 Manuel Carlan , Thomas Kneib , Nadja Klein

Statistical inference based on moment conditions and estimating equations is of substantial interest when it is difficult to specify a full probabilistic model. We propose a Bayesian flavored model selection framework based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-10 Cheng Li , Wenxin Jiang

We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Tim Ritmeester

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

This paper addresses the problem of semiparametric efficiency bounds for conditional moment restriction models with different conditioning variables. We characterize such an efficiency bound, that in general is not explicit, as a limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-29 Marian Hristache , Valentin Patilea

Bayesian inference provides a framework to combine various model components with shared parameters, allowing joint uncertainty estimation and the use of all available data sources. Unfortunately, misspecification of any part of the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Emilia Pompe , Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Pierre E. Jacob

Penalized B-splines are routinely used in additive models to describe smooth changes in a response with quantitative covariates. It is typically done through the conditional mean in the exponential family using generalized additive models…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-12 Philippe Lambert

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar
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