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Large language models (LLMs) are a promising venue for natural language understanding and generation tasks. However, current LLMs are far from reliable: they are prone to generate non-factual information and, more crucially, to contradict…
Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many…
Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…
Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to acquire sequence-level planning abilities during training, yet their planning behavior exhibited at inference time often appears short-sighted and inconsistent with these capabilities. We…
We give a model of how to infer natural language rules by doing experiments. The model integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with Monte Carlo algorithms for probabilistic inference, interleaving online belief updates with experiment…
Scaling test-time compute brings substantial performance gains for large language models (LLMs). By sampling multiple answers and heuristically aggregate their answers (e.g., either through majority voting or using verifiers to rank the…
Millions of users turn to AI models for their information needs. It is conceivable that a large number of user queries contain assumptions that may be factually inaccurate. Prior work notes that large language models (LLMs) often fail to…
Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have enhanced natural-language reasoning. However, their limited parametric memory and susceptibility to hallucination present persistent challenges for tasks requiring accurate,…
Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first…
Causal inference has shown potential in enhancing the predictive accuracy, fairness, robustness, and explainability of Natural Language Processing (NLP) models by capturing causal relationships among variables. The emergence of generative…
Evaluating generative models, such as large language models (LLMs), commonly involves question-answering tasks where the final answer is selected based on probability of answer choices. On the other hand, for models requiring reasoning, the…
Large language models (LLMs) have been found to produce hallucinations when the question exceeds their internal knowledge boundaries. A reliable model should have a clear perception of its knowledge boundaries, providing correct answers…
Large language models (LLMs) have generated significant attention since their inception, finding applications across various academic and industrial domains. However, these models often suffer from the "hallucination problem", where…
Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at…
Modern large language models (LLMs) are often evaluated and deployed under a one-shot, greedy inference protocol, especially in professional settings that require deterministic behavior. This regime can systematically under-estimate a fixed…
Large language models (LLMs) excel on multiple-choice clinical diagnosis benchmarks, yet it is unclear how much of this performance reflects underlying probabilistic reasoning. We study this through questions from MedQA, where the task is…
One of the most striking findings in modern research on large language models (LLMs) is that scaling up compute during training leads to better results. However, less attention has been given to the benefits of scaling compute during…
In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable generative abilities, but can they judge the quality of their own generations? A popular concept, referred to as self-refinement, postulates that LLMs can detect and…
Knowing the reliability of a model's response is essential in practical applications. Given the strong generation capabilities of large language models (LLMs), research has focused on generating verbalized confidence. This approach is…
Exhaustively evaluating many large language models (LLMs) on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive. We cast benchmarking as finite-population inference and, under a fixed query budget, seek tight confidence intervals (CIs) for model…