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Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Richard D. Riley

Functions of one or more variables are usually approximated with a basis: a complete, linearly-independent system of functions that spans a suitable function space. The topic of this paper is the numerical approximation of functions using…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-07 Ben Adcock , Daan Huybrechs

Fine-tuning pre-trained models is a widely employed technique in numerous real-world applications. However, fine-tuning these models on new tasks can lead to unfair outcomes. This is due to the absence of generalization guarantees for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Yixuan Zhang , Feng Zhou

Analyzing time series data is crucial to a wide spectrum of applications, including economics, online marketplaces, and human healthcare. In particular, time series classification plays an indispensable role in segmenting different phases…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Xiwen Chen , Wenhui Zhu , Peijie Qiu , Hao Wang , Huayu Li , Zihan Li , Yalin Wang , Aristeidis Sotiras , Abolfazl Razi

Modern predictive systems encode beliefs that can act as useful prior information for statistical inference in data-limited settings. Using them for prior construction introduces a tradeoff: an informative prior built from a predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Jongwoo Choi , Sean O'Hagan

This paper presents a novel mathematical framework for representing uncertainty in large deformation diffeomorphic image registration. The Bayesian posterior distribution over the deformations aligning a moving and a fixed image is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-01-13 Demian Wassermann , Matt Toews , Marc Niethammer , William Wells

Inverse problems lend themselves naturally to a Bayesian formulation, in which the quantity of interest is a posterior distribution of state and/or parameters given some uncertain observations. For the common case in which the forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-20 Kody J. H. Law

Bayesian computation for filtering and forecasting analysis is developed for a broad class of dynamic models. The ability to scale-up such analyses in non-Gaussian, nonlinear multivariate time series models is advanced through the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Andrew Cron , Mike West

Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Stephane Ross , Joelle Pineau

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

In this paper we present a new fast and accurate method for Radial Basis Function (RBF) approximation, including interpolation as a special case, which enables us to effectively find the optimal value of the RBF shape parameter. In…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-09 Roberto Cavoretto , Alessandra De Rossi , Sandro Lancellotti

This paper considers the topic of finding prior distributions when a major component of the statistical model depends on a nonlinear function. Using results on how to construct uniform distributions in general metric spaces, we propose a…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-09 Björn Bornkamp

The fine-tuning of pre-trained language models has resulted in the widespread availability of task-specific models. Model merging offers an efficient way to create multi-task models by combining these fine-tuned models at the parameter…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Sanwoo Lee , Jiahao Liu , Qifan Wang , Jingang Wang , Xunliang Cai , Yunfang Wu

We show that regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions provides a framework for prior sensitivity analysis. We develop a procedure that jointly regularizes expectations and variance-covariance matrices using a pair of shrinkage priors.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-15 Guanhao Feng , Nicholas G. Polson

Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-15 Yue Yang , Ryan Martin , Howard Bondell

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the use of relational event models for dynamic social network analysis. The basis of these models is the concept of an "event", defined as a triplet of time, sender, and receiver of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Diana Karimova , Joris Mulder , Roger Th. A. J. Leenders

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

Prior distributions for high-dimensional linear regression require specifying a joint distribution for the unobserved regression coefficients, which is inherently difficult. We instead propose a new class of shrinkage priors for linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Yan Dora Zhang , Brian P. Naughton , Howard D. Bondell , Brian J. Reich

Many real world problems exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. For example, in astrophysics, periodic variable stars play a pivotal role in understanding our universe. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-20 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon , Pavlos Protopapas

We introduce BayesSim, a framework for robotics simulations allowing a full Bayesian treatment for the parameters of the simulator. As simulators become more sophisticated and able to represent the dynamics more accurately, fundamental…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-06-06 Fabio Ramos , Rafael Carvalhaes Possas , Dieter Fox