Related papers: Fast and Efficient Bayesian Analysis of Structural…

We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this model, the conditional variance of each…

We introduce BayesChange, a computationally efficient R package, built on C++, for Bayesian change point detection and clustering of observations sharing common change points. While many R packages exist for change point analysis,…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification…

We present a new package in R implementing Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The package introduces many new features for data analysis using BART such as variable selection, interaction detection, model diagnostic plots,…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are widely used for structural analysis. Often the structural model identified through economically meaningful restrictions--e.g., sign restrictions--is supposed to be…

This article describes blavaan, an R package for estimating Bayesian structural equation models (SEMs) via JAGS and for summarizing the results. It also describes a novel parameter expansion approach for estimating specific types of models…

Many ecological and spatial processes are complex in nature and are not accurately modeled by linear models. Regression trees promise to handle the high-order interactions that are present in ecological and spatial datasets, but fail to…

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

We present the BayesBD package providing Bayesian inference for boundaries of noisy images. The BayesBD package implements flexible Gaussian process priors indexed by the circle to recover the boundary in a binary or Gaussian noised image,…

We introduce SpinSVAR, a novel method for estimating a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) from time-series data under sparse input assumption. Unlike prior approaches using Gaussian noise, we model the input as independent Laplacian…

Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension…

We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…

Accurate macroeconomic forecasting has become harder amid geopolitical disruptions, policy reversals, and volatile financial markets. Conventional vector autoregressions (VARs) overfit in high dimensional settings, while threshold VARs…

We study the effects of financial shocks on the United States economy by using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that exploits the non-normalities in the data. We use this method to uniquely identify the model and…

We propose a regularized factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows for sparsity in the factor loadings. In this framework, factors may only load on a subset of variables which simplifies the factor identification and…

In many practices, scientists are particularly interested in detecting which of the predictors are truly associated with a multivariate response. It is more accurate to model multiple responses as one vector rather than separating each…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are well-known tools for modeling dependent data with applications in spatial statistics, time series analysis, or econometrics. In this article, we present the R package varycoef that implements estimation,…