Related papers: EPT-1.5 Technical Report

We introduce AIFS-COMPO, a skilful medium-range data-driven global forecasting system for aerosols and reactive gases. Building on the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS), AIFS-COMPO employs a transformer-based…

Recently, artificial intelligence-based (AI-based) models for forecasting of global weather have been rapidly developed. Most of the global models are trained on reanalysis datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.25{\deg}*0.25{\deg}.…

Subseasonal forecasting, which is pivotal for agriculture, water resource management, and early warning of disasters, faces challenges due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have revolutionized…

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal…

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models…

The era of atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets is just around the corner. Modeling prior to observations is crucial in order to predict the observational challenges and to prepare for the data interpretation. This paper…

We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan Turing Institute and the Met Office. FastNet uses an…

Operational meteorological forecasting has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recently, this landscape has faced disruption by the advent of data-driven artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather models,…

Capitalizing on the recent availability of ERA5 monthly averaged long-term data records of mean atmospheric and climate fields based on high-resolution reanalysis, deep-learning architectures offer an alternative to physics-based daily…

In this report, we introduce our latest translation models, HY-MT1.5-1.8B and HY-MT1.5-7B, a new family of machine translation models developed through a holistic training framework tailored for high-performance translation. Our methodology…

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on…

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of…

Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link…

The increasing severity of climate change necessitates an urgent transition to renewable energy sources, making the large-scale adoption of wind energy crucial for mitigating environmental impact. However, the inherent uncertainty of wind…

Modern deep learning techniques, which mimic traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and are derived from global atmospheric reanalysis data, have caused a significant revolution within a few years. In this new paradigm, our…

Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…

Ambitious decarbonisation targets are rapidly increasing the commission of new offshore wind farms. For these newly commissioned plants to run, accurate power forecasts are needed from the onset. These allow grid stability, good reserve…

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general harmonic model of the Earth rotation using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous…

While machine learning-based weather prediction (MLWP) has achieved significant advancements, research on assimilating real observations or ensemble forecasts within MLWP models remains limited. We introduce ClimaX-LETKF, the first purely…