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Time-series forecasting increasingly demands not only accurate observational predictions but also causal forecasting under interventional and counterfactual queries in multivariate systems. We present DoFlow, a flow-based generative model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Dongze Wu , Feng Qiu , Yao Xie

Time-continuous dynamical systems defined on graphs are often used to model complex systems with many interacting components in a non-spatial context. In the reverse sense attaching meaningful dynamics to given 'interaction diagrams' is a…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2010-07-02 Markus Kirkilionis , Luca Sbano

Directed acyclic graphs have been used fruitfully to represent causal strucures (Pearl 1988). However, in the social sciences and elsewhere models are often used which correspond both causally and statistically to directed graphs with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-24 Thomas S. Richardson

Causal structure learning from observational data remains a non-trivial task due to various factors such as finite sampling, unobserved confounding factors, and measurement errors. Constraint-based and score-based methods tend to suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Rezaur Rashid , Jawad Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

Social learning algorithms provide models for the formation of opinions over social networks resulting from local reasoning and peer-to-peer exchanges. Interactions occur over an underlying graph topology, which describes the flow of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-15 Valentina Shumovskaia , Konstantinos Ntemos , Stefan Vlaski , Ali H. Sayed

Recent studies have shown great promise in applying graph neural networks for multivariate time series forecasting, where the interactions of time series are described as a graph structure and the variables are represented as the graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Junchen Ye , Zihan Liu , Bowen Du , Leilei Sun , Weimiao Li , Yanjie Fu , Hui Xiong

Learning the dynamics of complex systems features a large number of applications in data science. Graph-based modeling and inference underpins the most prominent family of approaches to learn complex dynamics due to their ability to capture…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-07-06 Luis M. Lopez-Ramos , Daniel Romero , Bakht Zaman , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Kashif Rasul , Abdul-Saboor Sheikh , Ingmar Schuster , Urs Bergmann , Roland Vollgraf

Directed acyclic graphs provide a fundamental tool for representing directed dependence structures in multivariate network data, and are widely used to model financial and economic networks. However, accurate and interpretable estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Huihang Liu , Wenhui Li , Xinyu Zhang

Social science theories often postulate causal relationships among a set of variables or events. Although directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are increasingly used to represent these theories, their full potential has not yet been realized in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-17 Sourabh Balgi , Adel Daoud , Jose M. Peña , Geoffrey T. Wodtke , Jesse Zhou

Graphical interaction models have become an important tool for analysing multivariate time series. In these models, the interrelationships among the components of a time series are described by undirected graphs in which the vertices depict…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Michael Eichler

Graphs are fundamental data structures which concisely capture the relational structure in many important real-world domains, such as knowledge graphs, physical and social interactions, language, and chemistry. Here we introduce a powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-12 Yujia Li , Oriol Vinyals , Chris Dyer , Razvan Pascanu , Peter Battaglia

Graph deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Unlike traditional multivariate forecasting methods, graph-based predictors leverage pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Ivan Marisca , Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi

The purpose of this paper is to infer a global (collective) model of time-varying responses of a set of nodes as a dynamic graph, where the individual time series are respectively observed at each of the nodes. The motivation of this work…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-02-18 Bo Jiang , Ashkan Panahi , Hamid Krim , Yiyi Yu , Spencer L. Smith

Temporal graph neural networks (TGNNs) have been widely used for modeling time-evolving graph-related tasks due to their ability to capture both graph topology dependency and non-linear temporal dynamic. The explanation of TGNNs is of vital…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-05 Wenchong He , Minh N. Vu , Zhe Jiang , My T. Thai

We consider the problem of learning causal directed acyclic graphs from an observational joint distribution. One can use these graphs to predict the outcome of interventional experiments, from which data are often not available. We show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Joris Mooij , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Qin Fang , Xinghao Qiao , Zihan Wang

Real-world graphs, such as social networks, financial transactions, and recommendation systems, often demonstrate dynamic behavior. This phenomenon, known as graph stream, involves the dynamic changes of nodes and the emergence and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Yanping Zheng , Zhewei Wei , Jiajun Liu

The central nervous system is composed of many individual units -- from cells to areas -- that are connected with one another in a complex pattern of functional interactions that supports perception, action, and cognition. One natural and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-03 Ann E. Sizemore , Danielle S. Bassett

Natural physical, chemical, and biological dynamical systems are often complex, with heterogeneous components interacting in diverse ways. We show how simple graph neural networks can be designed to jointly learn the interaction rules and…