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This paper investigates decision-making in A/B experiments for online platforms and marketplaces. In such settings, due to constraints on inventory, A/B experiments typically lead to biased estimators because of *interference* between…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ramesh Johari , Hannah Li , Anushka Murthy , Gabriel Y. Weintraub

Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Clément de Chaisemartin

Experiments in online platforms frequently suffer from network interference, in which a treatment applied to a given unit affects outcomes for other units connected via the platform. This SUTVA violation biases naive approaches to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Tianyi Peng , Naimeng Ye , Andrew Zheng

Rerandomization is a strategy of increasing efficiency as compared to complete randomization. The idea with rerandomization is that of removing allocations with imbalance in the observed covariates and then randomizing within the set of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-07 Junni L. Zhang , Per Johansson

The probability of benefit is a valuable and important measure of treatment effect, which has advantages over the average treatment effect. Particularly for an ordinal outcome, it has a better interpretation and can make apparent different…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-19 Erin E Gabriel , Michael C Sachs , Andreas Kryger Jensen

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Accurate heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is essential for personalized recommendations, making it important to evaluate and compare HTE estimators. Traditional assessment methods are inapplicable due to missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Zijun Gao

A central goal of causal inference is to detect and estimate the treatment effects of a given treatment or intervention on an outcome variable of interest, where a member known as the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) is of growing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Zijun Gao , Yanjun Han

We consider a causal inference model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. In particular, we suppose that the form of network interference is unknown to researchers. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

The randomization inference literature studying randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assumes that units' potential outcomes are deterministic. This assumption is unlikely to hold, as stochastic shocks may take place during the experiment. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-15 Antoine Deeb , Clément de Chaisemartin

Estimation of local average treatment effects in randomized trials typically requires an assumption known as the exclusion restriction in cases where we are unwilling to rule out unmeasured confounding. Under this assumption, any benefit…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-17 Andrew J. Spieker , Robert A. Greevy , Lyndsay A. Nelson , Lindsay S. Mayberry

Applied researchers are increasingly interested in whether and how treatment effects vary in randomized evaluations, especially variation not explained by observed covariates. We propose a model-free approach for testing for the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-17 Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Luke Miratrix

Estimating causal effects from observational data is essential in fields such as medicine, economics and social sciences, where privacy concerns are paramount. We propose a general, model-agnostic framework for differentially private…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Christian Janos Lebeda , Mathieu Even , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

The network interference model for causal inference places all experimental units at the vertices of an undirected exposure graph, such that treatment assigned to one unit may affect the outcome of another unit if and only if these two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Eben Kenah , Forrest W. Crawford

The assumption that no subject's exposure affects another subject's outcome, known as the no-interference assumption, has long held a foundational position in the study of causal inference. However, this assumption may be violated in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-27 Caleb H. Miles , Maya Petersen , Mark J. van der Laan

A large class of problems in sciences and engineering can be formulated as the general problem of constructing random intervals with pre-specified coverage probabilities for the mean. Wee propose a general approach for statistical inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-11 Xinjia Chen

Interference occurs when the treatment (or exposure) of one individual affects the outcomes of others. In some settings it may be reasonable to assume individuals can be partitioned into clusters such that there is no interference between…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-21 Lan Liu , Michael G. Hudgens , Bradley Saul , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

In this paper, we develop a semiparametric sensitivity analysis approach designed to address unmeasured confounding in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. We target estimation of the marginal distributions of potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Linda Amoafo , Shiyao Xu , Elizabeth Platz , Daniel Scharfstein