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Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-16 Thai Pham

Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Martin Pawelczyk , Johannes Haug , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Personalized decision making requires the knowledge of potential outcomes under different treatments, and confidence intervals about the potential outcomes further enrich this decision-making process and improve its reliability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Zonghao Chen , Ruocheng Guo , Jean-François Ton , Yang Liu

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Ruth H. Keogh , Nan van Geloven

We present Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNNs) to learn functional causal models from observational data. CGNNs leverage conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries to discover bivariate and multivariate causal…

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Computer vision is hard because of a large variability in lighting, shape, and texture; in addition the image signal is non-additive due to occlusion. Generative models promised to account for this variability by accurately modelling the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-03-10 Varun Jampani , Sebastian Nowozin , Matthew Loper , Peter V. Gehler

The challenge of balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in machine learning models, especially when sensitive attributes such as race, gender, or age are considered, has motivated substantial research in recent years. Counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Bowei Tian , Ziyao Wang , Shwai He , Wanghao Ye , Guoheng Sun , Yucong Dai , Yongkai Wu , Ang Li

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Deep learning models in medical imaging often fail when deployed in new clinical environments due to distribution shifts in demographics, scanner hardware, or acquisition protocols. A central challenge is underspecification, where models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Moritz Stammel , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Raghav Mehta , Mélanie Roschewitz , Ben Glocker

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Sadegh Shirani , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mohsen Bayati

We propose an architecture for training generative models of counterfactual conditionals of the form, 'can we modify event A to cause B instead of C?', motivated by applications in robot control. Using an 'adversarial training' paradigm, an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Simón C. Smith , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Jingquan Yan , Hao Wang

The capability of imagining internally with a mental model of the world is vitally important for human cognition. If a machine intelligent agent can learn a world model to create a "dream" environment, it can then internally ask what-if…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Minne Li , Mengyue Yang , Furui Liu , Xu Chen , Zhitang Chen , Jun Wang

Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investi- gate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multi-…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-30 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Qi Zhang , Harsh Parikh , Ashley Naimi , Razieh Nabi , Christopher Kim , Timothy Lash

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge $L^1$ and $L^2$ regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Shiv Agrawal , Hwanwoo Kim , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Alexander Strang

Causal discovery and inference from observational data is an essential problem in statistics posing both modeling and computational challenges. These are typically addressed by imposing strict assumptions on the joint distribution such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Enrico Giudice , Jack Kuipers , Giusi Moffa