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This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-07 Julian Martinez-Iriarte

As Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning systems are used in safety critical applications. Understanding why agents make decisions and how they achieve collective behavior is crucial. Existing explainable AI methods struggle in multi agent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Abraham Itzhak Weinberg

With the ongoing rise of machine learning, the need for methods for explaining decisions made by artificial intelligence systems is becoming a more and more important topic. Especially for image classification tasks, many state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-10 Silvan Mertes , Tobias Huber , Katharina Weitz , Alexander Heimerl , Elisabeth André

While reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied to numerous tasks, their reliance on neural networks makes their behavior difficult to understand and trust. Counterfactual explanations are human-friendly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Jasmina Gajcin , Ivana Dusparic

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Arran Zeyu Wang , David Borland , David Gotz

Counterfactual explanations are a popular type of explanation for making the outcomes of a decision making system transparent to the user. Counterfactual explanations tell the user what to do in order to change the outcome of the system in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Given a binary treatment and a binary mediator, mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of the treatment on an outcome variable into direct and indirect effects. However, the existing decompositions are "path-dependent", and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-14 Myoung-jae Lee

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a learning paradigm in which the agent learns from its environment through trial and error. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms represent the agent's policies using neural networks, making their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Jasmina Gajcin , Jovan Jeromela , Ivana Dusparic

Domain shift, encountered when using a trained model for a new patient population, creates significant challenges for sequential decision making in healthcare since the target domain may be both data-scarce and confounded. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Taylor W. Killian , Marzyeh Ghassemi , Shalmali Joshi

Identifying causal effects in the presence of unmeasured variables is a fundamental challenge in causal inference, for which proxy variable methods have emerged as a powerful solution. We contrast two major approaches in this framework: (1)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Ilya Shpitser

Counterfactuals refer to minimally edited inputs that cause a model's prediction to change, serving as a promising approach to explaining the model's behavior. Large language models (LLMs) excel at generating English counterfactuals and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Qianli Wang , Van Bach Nguyen , Yihong Liu , Fedor Splitt , Nils Feldhus , Christin Seifert , Hinrich Schütze , Sebastian Möller , Vera Schmitt

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 He Li , Haoang Chi , Mingyu Liu , Wanrong Huang , Liyang Xu , Wenjing Yang

Counterfactuals are a popular framework for interpreting machine learning predictions. These what if explanations are notoriously challenging to create for computer vision models: standard gradient-based methods are prone to produce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Jeremy Goldwasser , Giles Hooker

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Sahil Verma , Varich Boonsanong , Minh Hoang , Keegan E. Hines , John P. Dickerson , Chirag Shah

In real-world machine learning systems, labels are often derived from user behaviors that the system wishes to encourage. Over time, new models must be trained as new training examples and features become available. However, feedback loops…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Victoria Lin , Louis-Philippe Morency , Dimitrios Dimitriadis , Srinagesh Sharma

Generating safety-critical driving scenarios requires understanding why dangerous interactions arise, rather than merely forcing collisions. However, existing methods rely on heuristic adversarial agent selection and unstructured…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Bowen Jing , Ruiyang Hao , Weitao Zhou , Haibao Yu

Efficient exploration is critical for multiagent systems to discover coordinated strategies, particularly in open-ended domains such as search and rescue or planetary surveying. However, when exploration is encouraged only at the individual…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Ayhan Alp Aydeniz , Robert Loftin , Kagan Tumer

In this paper, we consider a setting where heterogeneous agents with connectivity are performing inference using unlabeled streaming data. Observed data are only partially informative about the target variable of interest. In order to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Mert Kayaalp , Yunus Inan , Visa Koivunen , Ali H. Sayed

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris

Mediation analysis is concerned with the decomposition of the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the indirect effect through a given mediator, and the remaining direct effect. This is ideally done using longitudinal measurements…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-04 Murthy N Mittinty , Stijn Vansteelandt
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