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Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna

We consider the problem of estimating the expected causal effect $E[Y|do(X)]$ for a target variable $Y$ when treatment $X$ is set by intervention, focusing on continuous random variables. In settings without selection bias or confounding,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-27 Marlies Hafer , Alexander Marx

Modern medical research demands specialized causal inference methods evaluating complex continuous-time dynamic treatment regimens using observational data. For instance, obtaining the causal effects of intravenous administration, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Haiyan Zhu , Yingchun Zhou

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nikolaj Thams , Rikke Søndergaard , Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

Scientists have been interested in estimating causal peer effects to understand how people's behaviors are affected by their network peers. However, it is well known that identification and estimation of causal peer effects are challenging…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 Naoki Egami , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Instrumental variables (IVs) are often continuous, arising in diverse fields such as economics, epidemiology, and the social sciences. Existing approaches for continuous IVs typically impose strong parametric models or assume homogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Mei Dong , Lin Liu , Dingke Tang , Geoffrey Liu , Wei Xu , Linbo Wang

A popular way to estimate the causal effect of a variable x on y from observational data is to use an instrumental variable (IV): a third variable z that affects y only through x. The more strongly z is associated with x, the more reliable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-14 Zhaobin Kuang , Frederic Sala , Nimit Sohoni , Sen Wu , Aldo Córdova-Palomera , Jared Dunnmon , James Priest , Christopher Ré

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-20 Jenny Häggström

The estimation of the treatment effect is often biased in the presence of unobserved confounding variables which are commonly referred to as hidden variables. Although a few methods have been recently proposed to handle the effect of hidden…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Kevin Jiang , Yang Ning

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Baohong Li , Ziyang Xiao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Qing Han , Kun Kuang

Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-02 Kay H. Brodersen , Fabian Gallusser , Jim Koehler , Nicolas Remy , Steven L. Scott

I set up a potential outcomes framework to analyze spillover effects using instrumental variables. I characterize the population compliance types in a setting in which spillovers can occur on both treatment take-up and outcomes, and provide…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-15 Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

Instrumental variables (IV) are a useful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IV methods are well developed for uncensored outcomes, particularly for structural linear equation models, where simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Behzad Kianian , Jung In Kim , Jason P. Fine , Limin Peng

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

With the evolution of single-cell RNA sequencing techniques into a standard approach in genomics, it has become possible to conduct cohort-level causal inferences based on single-cell-level measurements. However, the individual gene…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Jin-Hong Du , Zhenghao Zeng , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman , Kathryn Roeder

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna