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In autonomous driving, accurate motion prediction is crucial for safe and efficient motion planning. To ensure safety, planners require reliable uncertainty estimates of the predicted behavior of surrounding agents, yet this aspect has…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Aron Distelzweig , Andreas Look , Eitan Kosman , Faris Janjoš , Jörg Wagner , Abhinav Valada

In a world where more decisions are made using artificial intelligence, it is of utmost importance to ensure these decisions are well-grounded. Neural networks are the modern building blocks for artificial intelligence. Modern neural…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Mohamad Al Shaar , Nils Ekström , Gustav Gille , Reza Rezvan , Ivan Wely

Sharing information between connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) fundamentally improves the performance of collaborative object detection for self-driving. However, CAVs still have uncertainties on object detection due to practical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Sanbao Su , Yiming Li , Sihong He , Songyang Han , Chen Feng , Caiwen Ding , Fei Miao

Contemporary artificial intelligence systems are pivotal in enhancing human efficiency and safety across various domains. One such domain is autonomous systems, especially in automotive and defense use cases. Artificial intelligence brings…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Jason M. Pittman

Reliable uncertainty quantification is a first step towards building explainable, transparent, and accountable artificial intelligent systems. Recent progress in Bayesian deep learning has made such quantification realizable. In this paper,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Yijun Xiao , William Yang Wang

In order to achieve a more virtual design and certification process of jet engines in aviation industry, the uncertainty bounds for computational fluid dynamics have to be known. This work shows the application of a machine learning…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Marcel Matha , Christian Morsbach

When simulating a complex stochastic system, the behavior of output response depends on input parameters estimated from finite real-world data, and the finiteness of data brings input uncertainty into the system. The quantification of the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-20 Helin Zhu , Tianyi Liu , Enlu Zhou

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Pedro Conde , Rui L. Lopes , Cristiano Premebida

Quantifying and managing uncertainties that occur when data-driven models such as those provided by AI and machine learning methods are applied is crucial. This whitepaper provides a brief motivation and first overview of the state of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-29 Michael Kläs

Perception, localization, planning, and control, high-level functions often organized in a so-called pipeline, are amongst the core building blocks of modern autonomous (ground, air, and underwater) vehicle architectures. These functions…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Erfan Asaadi , Ewen Denney , Ganesh Pai

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Ensuring the functional safety of motion planning modules in autonomous vehicles remains a critical challenge, especially when dealing with complex or learning-based software. Online verification has emerged as a promising approach to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Korbinian Moller , Rafael Neher , Marvin Seegert , Johannes Betz

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 L. Julián Lechuga López , Shaza Elsharief , Dhiyaa Al Jorf , Firas Darwish , Congbo Ma , Farah E. Shamout

Many applications in aerodynamics, particularly in closed-loop control, depend on sensors to estimate the evolving state of the flow. This estimation task is inherently accompanied by uncertainty due to the noisy measurements of sensors or…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-07 Jeff D. Eldredge , Hanieh Mousavi

As autonomous systems increasingly rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to implement the navigation pipeline functions, uncertainty estimation methods have become paramount for estimating confidence in DNN predictions. Bayesian Deep Learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Fabio Arnez , Ansgar Radermacher , Huascar Espinoza

This paper proposes a new uncertainty measure, appropriate for quantifying the performance of transport models in assessing the origin or source of a given observation. It is found that in a neighbourhood of the observation the proposed…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-29 Guillermo Garcia-Sanchez , Ana Maria Mancho , Makrina Agaoglou , Stephen Wiggins

Due to the penetration of renewable energy resources and load deviation, uncertainty handling is one of the main challenges for power system; therefore the need for accurate decision-making in a power system under the penetration of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-26 Mohammad Hemmati , Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo , Alireza Soroudi

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes