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Group sequential designs drive innovation in clinical, industrial, and corporate settings. Early stopping for failure in sequential designs conserves experimental resources, whereas early stopping for success accelerates access to improved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Luke Hagar , Shirin Golchi , Marina B. Klein

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

We present variational sequential optimal experimental design (vsOED), a novel method for optimally designing a finite sequence of experiments within a Bayesian framework with information-theoretic criteria. vsOED employs a one-point reward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wanggang Shen , Jiayuan Dong , Xun Huan

In high-dimensional settings, Bayesian optimization (BO) can be expensive and infeasible. The random embedding Bayesian optimization algorithm is commonly used to address high-dimensional BO challenges. However, this method relies on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Jiaming Lu , Rong J. B. Zhu

Optimal design facilitates intelligent data collection. In this paper, we introduce a fully Bayesian design approach for spatial processes with complex covariance structures, like those typically exhibited in natural ecosystems. Coordinate…

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

The ability to design effective experiments is crucial for obtaining data that can substantially reduce the uncertainty in the predictions made using computational models. An optimal experimental design (OED) refers to the choice of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Troy Butler , John Jakeman , Michael Pilosov , Scott Walsh , Timothy Wildey

We propose a control-oriented optimal experimental design (cOED) approach for linear PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. In particular, we consider optimal control problems with uncertain parameters that need to be estimated by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Madhusudan Madhavan , Alen Alexanderian , Arvind K. Saibaba , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Rebekah D. White

Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Tom Blau , Iadine Chades , Amir Dezfouli , Daniel Steinberg , Edwin V. Bonilla

While many advanced statistical methods for the design of experiments exist, it is still typical for physical experiments to be performed adaptively based on human intuition. As a consequence, experimental resources are wasted on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Anton van Beek

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-01 Antony Overstall , David Woods

We propose Distributionally Balanced Designs (DBD), a new class of probability sampling designs that target representativeness at the level of the full auxiliary distribution rather than selected moments. In disciplines such as ecology,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Anton Grafström , Wilmer Prentius

In many science and industry settings, a central challenge is designing experiments under time and budget constraints. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a paradigm to pick maximally informative designs that has been widely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Roubing Tang , Sabina J. Sloman , Samuel Kaski

Bayesian optimization (BO) has shown impressive results in a variety of applications within low-to-moderate dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, extending BO to high-dimensional settings remains a significant challenge. We address this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-11 Shouri Hu , Jiawei Li , Zhibo Cai

Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely, and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same…

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to…

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides a principled framework for selecting observations or experiments. We introduce new Bayesian design criteria based on the expected Wasserstein-$p$ distance between the prior and posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tapio Helin , Youssef Marzouk , Jose Rodrigo Rojo-Garcia

Systems with both quantitative and qualitative responses are widely encountered in many applications. Design of experiment methods are needed when experiments are conducted to study such systems. Classic experimental design methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-24 Lulu Kang , Xinwei Deng , Ran Jin

Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-19 Louis C. Tiao , Aaron Klein , Matthias Seeger , Edwin V. Bonilla , Cedric Archambeau , Fabio Ramos

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become an effective approach for black-box function optimization problems when function evaluations are expensive and the optimum can be achieved within a relatively small number of queries. However, many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-06 Zi Wang , Clement Gehring , Pushmeet Kohli , Stefanie Jegelka
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