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Related papers: Causal Inference Using Augmented Epidemic Models

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Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-12-01 Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Dirk Helbing

The recent pandemic emphasized the need to consider the role of human behavior in shaping epidemic dynamics. In particular, it is necessary to extend beyond the classical epidemiological structures to fully capture the interplay between the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Leah LeJeune , Navid Ghaffarzadegan , Lauren Childs , Omar Saucedo

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Eben Kenah , Forrest W. Crawford

This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-10 William Waites , Matteo Cavaliere , David Manheim , Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths , Vincent Danos

Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-19 Tom Britton , David Lindenstrand

In this work, we introduce a quantum-inspired epidemic model to study the dynamics of an infectious disease in a population divided into compartments. By treating the healthy population as a large reservoir, we construct a framework based…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-03-19 Fabio Bagarello , Francesco Gargano , Polina Khrennikova

Recent developments in causal inference allow us to transport a causal effect of a time-fixed treatment from a randomized trial to a target population across space but within the same time frame. In contrast to transportability across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Laura Forastiere , Fan Li , Michela Baccini

Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) have been successfully employed on numerous occasions to obtain vital data-driven insights. In this paper we further substantiate the success story of GAMs,…

The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-21 Milad Radiom , Jean-Franccois Berret

Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-20 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Haonan Wu , Rajarshi Banerjee , Indhumathi Venkatachalam , Daniel Percy-Hughes , Praveen Chougale

In order to model an epidemic, different approaches can be adopted. Mainly, the deterministic approach and the stochastic one. Recently, a large amount of literature has been published using the two approaches. The aim of this paper is to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-01-30 Mohamed Mehdaoui

Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-17 Joel C. Miller

Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-06 L. A. Rodríguez Palomino , Adrián A. Budini

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Tom Britton , Theodore Kypraios , Philip O'Neill

Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Oguzhan Gencoglu , Mathias Gruber

Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…

Prediction models are used amongst others to inform medical decisions on interventions. Typically, individuals with high risks of adverse outcomes are advised to undergo an intervention while those at low risk are advised to refrain from…

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen