Related papers: Fill In The Gaps: Model Calibration and Generaliza…

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models, and prior research has demonstrated improvements in the calibration of modern language models (LMs). We study in-context learning (ICL), a…

To be considered reliable, a model must be calibrated so that its confidence in each decision closely reflects its true outcome. In this blogpost we'll take a look at the most commonly used definition for calibration and then dive into a…

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) has demonstrated high performance in image classification tasks by effectively utilizing both labeled and unlabeled data. However, existing SSL methods often suffer from poor calibration, with models yielding…

We propose the Variation Calibration Error (VCE) metric for assessing the calibration of machine learning classifiers. The metric can be viewed as an extension of the well-known Expected Calibration Error (ECE) which assesses the…

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high…

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Large Language Models (LLM) are increasingly trained on data generated by other LLM, either because generated text and images become part of the pre-training corpus, or because synthetized data is used as a replacement for expensive…

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared.…

As world knowledge advances and new task schemas emerge, Continual Learning (CL) becomes essential for keeping Large Language Models (LLMs) current and addressing their shortcomings. This process typically involves continual instruction…

The ultimate performance of machine learning algorithms for classification tasks is usually measured in terms of the empirical error probability (or accuracy) based on a testing dataset. Whereas, these algorithms are optimized through the…

While pre-trained language models (PLMs) have become a de-facto standard promoting the accuracy of text classification tasks, recent studies find that PLMs often predict over-confidently. Although various calibration methods have been…

The Expected Normalized Calibration Error (ENCE) is a popular calibration statistic used in Machine Learning to assess the quality of prediction uncertainties for regression problems. Estimation of the ENCE is based on the binning of…

Monotone learning describes learning processes in which expected performance consistently improves as the amount of training data increases. However, recent studies challenge this conventional wisdom, revealing significant gaps in the…

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the…

Continual Learning (CL) focuses on maximizing the predictive performance of a model across a non-stationary stream of data. Unfortunately, CL models tend to forget previous knowledge, thus often underperforming when compared with an offline…

The advent of pre-trained language models (PLMs) has enabled significant performance gains in the field of natural language processing. However, recent studies have found PLMs to suffer from miscalibration, indicating a lack of accuracy in…

Large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed as general-purpose problem solvers, making accurate confidence estimation critical for reliable use. Prior work on LLM calibration largely focuses on response-level confidence, which…

Reliable probabilities are critical in high-risk applications, yet common calibration criteria (confidence, class-wise) are only necessary for full distributional calibration, and post-hoc methods often lack distribution-free guarantees. We…

We propose a unified class of calibration weighting methods based on weighted generalized entropy to handle missing at random (MAR) data with improved stability and efficiency. The proposed generalized entropy calibration (GEC) formulates…