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Design under uncertainty is a challenging problem, as a systems performance can be highly sensitive to variations in input parameters and model uncertainty. A conventional approach to addressing such problems is robust optimization, which…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-18 Maryam Ghasemzadeh , H M Dilshad Alam Digonta , Anand Balu Nellippallil , Anton van Beek

Reliability of a system is considered where the components' random lifetimes may be dependent. The structure of the system is described by an associated "lattice polynomial" function. Based on that descriptor, general framework formulas are…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-13 Alexander Dukhovny , Jean-Luc Marichal

A growing body of research indicates that structural plasticity mechanisms are crucial for learning and memory consolidation. Starting from a simple phenomenological model, we exploit a mean-field approach to develop a theoretical framework…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-19 Gianmarco Tiddia , Luca Sergi , Bruno Golosio

Reliable inference for spatial regression remains challenging because it requires the correct specification of the spatial dependence structure, the mean trend, and the error distribution. Existing parametric testing methods rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Kanghyun Wi , Hyoeun Kim , Tomáš Mrkvička , Jorge Mateu , Jaewoo Park

The prediction of the Remaining Useful Life of aircraft engines is a critical area in high-reliability sectors such as aerospace and defense. Early failure predictions help ensure operational continuity, reduce maintenance costs, and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-19 Yigitcan Yardimci , Mustafa Cavus

The rainflow counting algorithm for material fatigue is both simple to implement and extraordinarily successful for predicting material failure times. However, it neglects memory effects and time-ordering dependence, and therefore runs into…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-11-11 Stephen Guth , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Statistical prediction models are often trained on data from different probability distributions than their eventual use cases. One approach to proactively prepare for these shifts harnesses the intuition that causal mechanisms should…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Bijan Mazaheri , Atalanti Mastakouri , Dominik Janzing , Michaela Hardt

This paper proposes a variance-based measure of importance for coherent systems with dependent and heterogeneous components. The particular cases of independent components and homogeneous components are also considered. We model the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-30 Antonio Arriaza , Jorge Navarro , Miguel Angel Sordo , Alfonso Suárez-Llorens

Forecasting the number of trips in bike-sharing systems and its volatility over time is crucial for planning and optimizing such systems. This paper develops timeseries models to forecast hourly count timeseries data, and estimate its…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Alireza Hosseini , Reza Hosseini

Forecasting surgical instrument trajectories and predicting the next surgical action recently started to attract attention from the research community. Both these tasks are crucial for automation and assistance in endoscopy surgery. Given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Sara Sangalli , Gary Sarwin , Ertunc Erdil , Alessandro Carretta , Victor Staartjes , Carlo Serra , Ender Konukoglu

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-07 Maximilian Blesch , Philipp Eisenhauer

Seismic fragility curves have been introduced as key components of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies. They express the probability of failure of mechanical structures conditional to a seismic intensity measure and must take into…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-13 Clement Gauchy , Cyril Feau , Josselin Garnier

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-12-14 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

In this paper, we present a robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) scheme for linear systems subject to parametric uncertainty and additive disturbances. The proposed approach provides a computationally efficient formulation with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-12 Johannes Köhler , Elisa Andina , Raffaele Soloperto , Matthias A. Müller , Frank Allgöwer

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

Computer vision leveraging deep learning has achieved significant success in the last decade. Despite the promising performance of the existing deep models in the recent literature, the extent of models' reliability remains unknown.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-13 Seyed Omid Sajedi , Xiao Liang

We propose a computational framework to quantify (measure) and to optimize the reliability of complex systems. The approach uses a graph representation of the system that is subject to random failures of its components (nodes and edges).…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Joshua L. Pulsipher , Victor M. Zavala

Ensuring safety through set invariance has proven to be a valuable method in various robotics and control applications. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for the safe probabilistic invariance verification of both discrete- and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-06 Taoran Wu , Yiqing Yu , Bican Xia , Ji Wang , Bai Xue

In the framework of the estimation of safety margins in nuclear accident analysis, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties tainting the results of computer simulations is essential. Accurate uncertainty propagation (estimation of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Bertrand Iooss , Amandine Marrel

The paper deals with the problem of controlling the state of industrial devices according to the readings of their sensors. The current methods rely on one approach to feature extraction in which the prediction occurs. We proposed a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-13 Dmitry Zhevnenko , Mikhail Kazantsev , Ilya Makarov