Related papers: Testing for unspecified periodicities in binary ti…
This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…
This paper considers the problem of testing whether there exists a non-negative solution to a possibly under-determined system of linear equations with known coefficients. This hypothesis testing problem arises naturally in a number of…
Many multiple testing procedures make use of the p-values from the individual pairs of hypothesis tests, and are valid if the p-value statistics are independent and uniformly distributed under the null hypotheses. However, it has recently…
A novel method for sequential outlier detection in non-stationary time series is proposed. The method tests the null hypothesis of ``no outlier'' at each time point, addressing the multiple testing problem by bounding the error probability…
The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of…
Hypothesis testing in contingency tables is usually based on asymptotic results, thereby restricting its proper use to large samples. To study these tests in small samples, we consider the likelihood ratio test and define an accurate index,…
In this paper, we focus on the problem of stable prediction across unknown test data, where the test distribution is agnostic and might be totally different from the training one. In such a case, previous machine learning methods might…
This paper is concerned with a Bayesian approach to testing hypotheses in statistical inverse problems. Based on the posterior distribution $\Pi \left(\cdot |Y = y\right)$, we want to infer whether a feature $\langle\varphi,…
A/B tests are typically analyzed via frequentist p-values and confidence intervals; but these inferences are wholly unreliable if users endogenously choose samples sizes by *continuously monitoring* their tests. We define *always valid*…
This paper shows that the problem of testing hypotheses in moment condition models without any assumptions about identification may be considered as a problem of testing with an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We introduce a…
We derive a formula for the reliability of a $d$-dimensional consecutive-$k$-out-of-$n$:F system. That is, a formula for the probability that an $n_1 \times \ldots \times n_d$ array whose entries are (independently of each other) $0$ with…
We construct a statistic and null test for examining the stationarity of time-series of discrete symbols: whether two data streams appear to originate from the same underlying unknown dynamical system, and if any difference is statistically…
Given a finite-valued sample $X_1,...,X_n$ we wish to test whether it was generated by a stationary ergodic process belonging to a family $H_0$, or it was generated by a stationary ergodic process outside $H_0$. We require the Type I error…
Given the cost and duration of phase III and phase IV clinical trials, the development of statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is vital. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to compute the probability of success based on…
We consider the sequential composite binary hypothesis testing problem in which one of the hypotheses is governed by a single distribution while the other is governed by a family of distributions whose parameters belong to a known set…
P-time event graphs are discrete event systems able to model cyclic production systems where tasks need to be performed within given time windows. Consistency is the property of admitting an infinite execution of such tasks that does not…
This paper proposes a new class of nonparametric tests for the correct specification of models based on conditional moment restrictions, paying particular attention to generalized propensity score models. The test procedure is based on two…
This paper deals with the problem of model selection for a general class of integer-valued time series. We propose a penalized criterion based on the Poisson quasi-likelihood of the model. Under certain regularity conditions, the…
How can we monitor, in real time, whether one uncertain prospect has any upside over another? To answer this question, we develop a novel family of sequential, anytime-valid tests for stochastic dominance (SD; also known as stochastic…
The presence of interference renders classic Fisher randomization tests infeasible due to nuisance unknowns. To address this issue, we propose imputing the nuisance unknowns and computing Fisher randomization p-values multiple times, then…