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We propose a novel approach for change-point detection and parameter learning in multivariate non-stationary time series exhibiting oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the process through a piecewise function defined by a sum of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 Nicolas Bianco , Lorenzo Cappello

We develop methodology to detect structural breaks in the slope function of a concurrent functional linear regression model for functional time series in $C[0,1]$. Our test is based on a CUSUM process of regressor-weighted OLS residual…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Rupsa Basu , Sven Otto

This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-19 Xueheng Shi , Claudie Beaulieu , Rebecca Killick , Robert Lund

Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-10 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson , Ramon van Handel

Learning a transition model via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) followed by planning inside the learned model is perhaps the most standard and simplest Model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework. In this work, we show that such a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Zhiyong Wang , Dongruo Zhou , John C. S. Lui , Wen Sun

We consider the problem of detecting abrupt changes in the distribution of a multi-dimensional time series, with limited computing power and memory. In this paper, we propose a new, simple method for model-free online change-point detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-02 Nicolas Keriven , Damien Garreau , Iacopo Poli

We propose a novel change-point detection method based on online Dynamic Mode Decomposition with control (ODMDwC). Leveraging ODMDwC's ability to find and track linear approximation of a non-linear system while incorporating control…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Marek Wadinger , Michal Kvasnica , Yoshinobu Kawahara

This paper describes and compares several prominent single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data. Due to their importance in inferential matters, changepoint research on correlated data has accelerated recently.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-07 Xueheng Shi , Colin Gallagher , Robert Lund , Rebecca Killick

Change point estimation in its offline version is traditionally performed by optimizing over the data set of interest, by considering each data point as the true location parameter and computing a data fit criterion. Subsequently, the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-10 Zhiyuan Lu , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

This paper is devoted to change-point detection using only the ordinal structure of a time series. A statistic based on the conditional entropy of ordinal patterns characterizing the local up and down in a time series is introduced and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-18 Anton M. Unakafov , Karsten Keller

Probabilistic modelling of power systems operation and planning processes depends on data-driven methods, which require sufficiently large datasets. When historical data lacks this, it is desired to model the underlying data generation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-26 Kutay Bölat , Simon H. Tindemans , Peter Palensky

We consider the system identification problem of estimating a dynamical parameter of a Markovian quantum open system (the atom maser), by performing continuous time measurements in the system's output (outgoing atoms). Two estimation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Catalin Catana , Theodore Kypraios , Madalin Guta

In this paper, we consider a high-dimensional quantile regression model where the sparsity structure may differ between two sub-populations. We develop $\ell_1$-penalized estimators of both regression coefficients and the threshold…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-07 Sokbae Lee , Yuan Liao , Myung Hwan Seo , Youngki Shin

Change-point analysis is thriving in this big data era to address problems arising in many fields where massive data sequences are collected to study complicated phenomena over time. It plays an important role in processing these data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-23 Yi-Wei Liu , Hao Chen

Deep energy-based models (EBMs), which use deep neural networks (DNNs) as energy functions, are receiving increasing attention due to their ability to learn complex distributions. To train deep EBMs, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Beomsu Kim , Jong Chul Ye

In recent years, change point detection for high dimensional data has become increasingly important in many scientific fields. Most literature develop a variety of separate methods designed for specified models (e.g. mean shift model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Yue Bai , Abolfazl Safikhani

We propose an inference method for detecting multiple change points in high-dimensional time series, targeting dense or spatially clustered signals. Our method aggregates moving sum (MOSUM) statistics cross-sectionally by an $\ell^2$-norm…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-06 Jiaqi Li , Likai Chen , Weining Wang , Wei Biao Wu

Reinforcement Learning aims at identifying and evaluating efficient control policies from data. In many real-world applications, the learner is not allowed to experiment and cannot gather data in an online manner (this is the case when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Daniele Foffano , Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

Log-logistic distribution is a flexible distribution that can model a wide range of failure patterns in the field of electrical, electronic and mechanical engineering and is often used in reliability inference. However, the inference of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Bowen Liu , Malwane M. A. Ananda , Sam Weerahandi

Graphical models with change-points are computationally challenging to fit, particularly in cases where the number of observation points and the number of nodes in the graph are large. Focusing on Gaussian graphical models, we introduce an…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-17 Yves Atchade , Leland Bybee