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The model-X conditional randomization test is a generic framework for conditional independence testing, unlocking new possibilities to discover features that are conditionally associated with a response of interest while controlling type-I…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Shalev Shaer , Yaniv Romano

The main theme of this paper is a modification of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing high dimensional covariance matrix. Recently, the correct asymptotic distribution of the LRT for a large-dimensional case (the case $p/n$…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-16 Young-Geun Choi , Chi Tim Ng , Johan Lim

This paper addresses computational challenges in estimating Quantile Regression with Selection (QRS). The estimation of the parameters that model self-selection requires the estimation of the entire quantile process several times. Moreover,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Santiago Pereda-Fernández

We develop a weakest-precondition-style calculus \`a la Dijkstra for reasoning about amortized expected runtimes of randomized algorithms with access to dynamic memory - the $\textsf{aert}$ calculus. Our calculus is truly quantitative, i.e.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Kevin Batz , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Christoph Matheja , Lena Verscht

An important aspect of large-scale structure data analysis is the presence of non-negligible theoretical uncertainties, which become increasingly important on small scales. We show how to incorporate these uncertainties in realistic power…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-02-24 Anton Chudaykin , Mikhail M. Ivanov , Marko Simonović

Scientific knowledge expands by observing the world, hypothesizing some theories about it, and testing them against collected data. When those theories take the form of statistical models, statistical analyses are involved in the process of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-11 Arnaud Delaunoy

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Flavia Barsotti , Yohann De Castro , Thibault Espinasse , Paul Rochet

Model updating of engineering systems inevitably involves handling both aleatory or inherent randomness and epistemic uncertainties or uncertainities arising from a lack of knowledge or information about the system. Addressing these…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-27 Sangwon Lee , Taro Yaoyama , Masaru Kitahara , Tatsuya Itoi

When globally optimal solutions of complicated optimization problems cannot be located by evolutionary algorithms (EAs) in polynomial expected running time, the hitting time/running time analysis is not flexible enough to accommodate the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Cong Wang , Yu Chen , Jun He , Chengwang Xie

Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Myriam Tami , Marianne Clausel , Emilie Devijver , Adrien Dulac , Eric Gaussier , Stefan Janaqi , Meriam Chebre

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Charita Dellaporta , Yuga Hikida , François-Xavier Briol

In this work, we proposed a novel inferential procedure assisted by machine learning based adjustment for randomized control trials. The method was developed under the Rosenbaum's framework of exact tests in randomized experiments with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Han Yu , Alan D. Hutson , Xiaoyi Ma

In this work, we study the weighted empirical risk minimization (weighted ERM) schema, in which an additional data-dependent weight function is incorporated when the empirical risk function is being minimized. We show that under a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yikai Zhang , Jiahe Lin , Fengpei Li , Songzhu Zheng , Anant Raj , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka

We tackle covariance estimation in low-sample scenarios, employing a structured covariance matrix with shrinkage methods. These involve convexly combining a low-bias/high-variance empirical estimate with a biased regularization estimator,…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-06-28 Olivier Flasseur , Eric Thiébaut , Loïc Denis , Maud Langlois

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariate shift is prevalent in a wide range of real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Zachary Nado , Shreyas Padhy , D. Sculley , Alexander D'Amour , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Jasper Snoek

Selective inference methods are developed for group lasso estimators for use with a wide class of distributions and loss functions. The method includes the use of exponential family distributions, as well as quasi-likelihood modeling for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Yiling Huang , Sarah Pirenne , Snigdha Panigrahi , Gerda Claeskens

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-16 Conor Rosato , Harvinder Lehal , Simon Maskell , Lee Devlin , Malcolm Strens

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Jana Kleinemeier , Nadja Klein

Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-04-20 Tianqing Zhang , Markus Michael Rau , Rachel Mandelbaum , Xiangchong Li , Ben Moews

Shape-constrained symbolic regression (SCSR) allows to include prior knowledge into data-based modeling. This inclusion allows to ensure that certain expected behavior is better reflected by the resulting models. The expected behavior is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-10 Christian Haider