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In recent years, the development of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) systems has been nothing short of remarkable. As these systems continue to evolve, they are being utilized in increasingly complex and unstructured environments,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Maryam Zare , Parham M. Kebria , Abbas Khosravi , Saeid Nahavandi

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Yawei Li , David Rügamer , Bernd Bischl , Mina Rezaei

Detecting concept drift in high-speed data streams remains challenging, particularly when models must operate on unlabeled data and avoid false alarms caused by benign shifts. While disagreement-based uncertainty has shown promise in neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Lara Sá Neves , Afonso Lourenço , Lizy K. John , Goreti Marreiros

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Learning to perform tasks by leveraging a dataset of expert observations, also known as imitation learning from observations (ILO), is an important paradigm for learning skills without access to the expert reward function or the expert…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-26 Tanmay Gangwani , Yuan Zhou , Jian Peng

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

We propose a framework for learning calibrated uncertainties under domain shifts, where the source (training) distribution differs from the target (test) distribution. We detect such domain shifts via a differentiable density ratio…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Haoxuan Wang , Zhiding Yu , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar , Anqi Liu , Junchi Yan

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

In Imitation Learning (IL), utilizing suboptimal and heterogeneous demonstrations presents a substantial challenge due to the varied nature of real-world data. However, standard IL algorithms consider these datasets as homogeneous, thereby…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Mark Beliaev , Ramtin Pedarsani

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

This paper studies offline Imitation Learning (IL) where an agent learns to imitate an expert demonstrator without additional online environment interactions. Instead, the learner is presented with a static offline dataset of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Jonathan D. Chang , Masatoshi Uehara , Dhruv Sreenivas , Rahul Kidambi , Wen Sun

Assistive robotic arms often have more degrees-of-freedom than a human teleoperator can control with a low-dimensional input, like a joystick. To overcome this challenge, existing approaches use data-driven methods to learn a mapping from…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Michelle Zhao , Reid Simmons , Henny Admoni , Andrea Bajcsy

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Yuko Kato , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Imitation Learning (IL) is a widely used framework for learning imitative behavior from demonstrations. It is especially appealing for solving complex real-world tasks where handcrafting reward function is difficult, or when the goal is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Chenran Li , Chen Tang , Haruki Nishimura , Jean Mercat , Masayoshi Tomizuka , Wei Zhan

Safety-critical control of uncertain, adaptive systems often relies on conservative, worst-case uncertainty bounds that limit closed-loop performance. Online conformal prediction is a powerful data-driven method for quantifying uncertainty…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-08 Daniel M. Cherenson , Dimitra Panagou

We present an iterative approach for planning and controlling motions of underactuated robots with uncertain dynamics. At its core, there is a learning process which estimates the perturbations induced by the model uncertainty on the active…

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

Imitation Learning (IL) is an appealing approach to learn desirable autonomous behavior. However, directing IL to achieve arbitrary goals is difficult. In contrast, planning-based algorithms use dynamics models and reward functions to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-02 Nicholas Rhinehart , Rowan McAllister , Sergey Levine
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