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We propose an expert-elicitation method for learning non-parametric joint prior distributions using normalizing flows. Normalizing flows are a class of generative models that enable exact, single-step density evaluation and can capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Florence Bockting , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-18 Marcelo Hartmann , Georgi Agiashvili , Paul Bürkner , Arto Klami

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Brian L Trippe , Richard E Turner

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-15 Danilo Jimenez Rezende , Shakir Mohamed

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-17 Julia R. Falconer , Eibe Frank , Devon L. L. Polaschek , Chaitanya Joshi

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Explicit density learners are becoming an increasingly popular technique for generative models because of their ability to better model probability distributions. They have advantages over Generative Adversarial Networks due to their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Steven Walton , Valeriy Klyukin , Maksim Artemev , Denis Derkach , Nikita Orlov , Humphrey Shi

Normalizing flows are a powerful class of generative models demonstrating strong performance in several speech and vision problems. In contrast to other generative models, normalizing flows are latent variable models with tractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Dmitry Baranchuk , Vladimir Aliev , Artem Babenko

Although the usefulness of belief networks for reasoning under uncertainty is widely accepted, obtaining numerical probabilities that they require is still perceived a major obstacle. Often not enough statistical data is available to allow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Marek J. Druzdzel , Linda C. van der Gaag

Normalizing flows are objects used for modeling complicated probability density functions, and have attracted considerable interest in recent years. Many flexible families of normalizing flows have been developed. However, the focus to date…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Tin Lok James Ng , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

Bayesian posterior inference is prevalent in various machine learning problems. Variational inference provides one way to approximate the posterior distribution, however its expressive power is limited and so is the accuracy of resulting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Guoqing Zheng , Yiming Yang , Jaime Carbonell

Systems biology relies on mathematical models that often involve complex and intractable likelihood functions, posing challenges for efficient inference and model selection. Generative models, such as normalizing flows, have shown…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-06 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Density deconvolution is the task of estimating a probability density function given only noise-corrupted samples. We can fit a Gaussian mixture model to the underlying density by maximum likelihood if the noise is normally distributed, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Tim Dockhorn , James A. Ritchie , Yaoliang Yu , Iain Murray

Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication of uncertainty in material flow analyses (MFAs), and a systematic update of uncertainty as new data become available. However, the method is undermined by the difficultly of defining…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-28 Jiayuan Dong , Jiankan Liao , Xun Huan , Daniel Cooper

Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Paweł Lorek , Rafał Nowak , Rafał Topolnicki , Tomasz Trzciński , Maciej Zięba , Aleksandra Krystecka

Normalizing Flows are generative models that directly maximize the likelihood. Previously, the design of normalizing flows was largely constrained by the need for analytical invertibility. We overcome this constraint by a training procedure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Felix Draxler , Peter Sorrenson , Lea Zimmermann , Armand Rousselot , Ullrich Köthe

Normalizing flow (NF) has gained popularity over traditional maximum likelihood based methods due to its strong capability to model complex data distributions. However, the standard approach, which maps the observed data to a normal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Hanze Dong , Shizhe Diao , Weizhong Zhang , Tong Zhang

Modeling real-world distributions can often be challenging due to sample data that are subjected to perturbations, e.g., instrumentation errors, or added random noise. Since flow models are typically nonlinear algorithms, they amplify these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Sameera Ramasinghe , Kasun Fernando , Salman Khan , Nick Barnes

Fair representation learning is an attractive approach that promises fairness of downstream predictors by encoding sensitive data. Unfortunately, recent work has shown that strong adversarial predictors can still exhibit unfairness by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Mislav Balunović , Anian Ruoss , Martin Vechev
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