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Predicting flood for any location at times of extreme storms is a longstanding problem that has utmost importance in emergency management. Conventional methods that aim to predict water levels in streams use advanced hydrological models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Muhammed Sit , Ibrahim Demir

Short-range prediction of convective precipitation from weather radar observations is essential for severe weather warnings. However, deep learning models trained with pixel-wise error metrics tend to produce overly smooth forecasts that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Haofei Cui , Guangxin He , Juanzhen Sun , Jingjia Luo , Haonan Chen , Xiaoran Zhuang , Mingxuan Chen , Xian Xiao

Precipitation data collected at sub-hourly resolution represents specific challenges for missing data recovery by being largely stochastic in nature and highly unbalanced in the duration of rain vs non-rain. Here we present a two-step…

Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall. This study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Gijs van Nieuwkoop , Siamak Mehrkanoon

Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-20 Shun-Yao Shih , Fan-Keng Sun , Hung-yi Lee

Precipitation nowcasting is a critical spatio-temporal prediction task for society to prevent severe damage owing to extreme weather events. Despite the advances in this field, the complex and stochastic nature of this task still poses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Shi Quan Foo , Chi-Ho Wong , Zhihan Gao , Dit-Yan Yeung , Ka-Hing Wong , Wai-Kin Wong

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Precipitation nowcasting (up to a few hours) remains a challenge due to the highly complex local interactions that need to be captured accurately. Convolutional Neural Networks rely on convolutional kernels convolving with grid data and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Shan Zhao , Sudipan Saha , Zhitong Xiong , Niklas Boers , Xiao Xiang Zhu

Weather forecasting is essential for facilitating diverse socio-economic activity and environmental conservation initiatives. Deep learning techniques are increasingly being explored as complementary approaches to Numerical Weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Marco Turzi , Siamak Mehrkanoon

Accurate rainfall forecasting is critical because it has a great impact on people's social and economic activities. Recent trends on various literatures show that Deep Learning (Neural Network) is a promising methodology to tackle many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Seongchan Kim , Seungkyun Hong , Minsu Joh , Sa-kwang Song

Radar-based convective precipitation nowcasting suffers from rapid performance degradation beyond 30 minutes due to missing thermodynamic variables. Existing deep learning models also face blurring effects, training instability, and limited…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-06 Dandan Chen , Yaqiang Wang , Anyuan Xiong , Enda Zhu

With the increasing availability of meteorological data from various sensors, numerical models and reanalysis products, the need for efficient data integration methods has become paramount for improving weather forecasts and…

Streamflow forecasts are critical to guide water resource management, mitigate drought and flood effects, and develop climate-smart infrastructure and governance. Many global regions, however, have limited streamflow observations to guide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Roland Oruche , Fearghal O'Donncha

Deep learning methods dominate short-term high-resolution precipitation nowcasting in terms of prediction error. However, their operational usability is limited by difficulties explaining dynamics behind the predictions, which are smoothed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-30 Matej Choma , Petr Šimánek , Jakub Bartel

Precipitation nowcasting is a vital spatio-temporal prediction task for meteorological applications but faces challenges due to the chaotic property of precipitation systems. Existing methods predominantly rely on single-source radar data…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Chunlei Shi , Hao Li , Yufeng Zhu , Boyu Liu , Yongchao Feng , Zengliang Zang , Hongbin Wang , Yanlan Yang , Dan Niu

Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics. Although recent methods increasingly adopt attention-based architectures in both unimodal and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Penghui Wen , Zexin Hu , Sen Zhang , Patrick Filippi , Xiaogang Zhu , Allen Benter , Thomas Bishop , Zhiyong Wang , Kun Hu

Precipitation nowcasting, critical for flood emergency and river management, has remained challenging for decades, although recent developments in deep generative modeling (DGM) suggest the possibility of improvements. River management…

Reliable nowcasting of extreme precipitation remains difficult because convective systems are strongly nonlinear, multiscale, and nonstationary in 3D. Radar is the backbone of nowcasting, yet existing methods struggle to predict extremes:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Huaguan Chen , Wei Han , Haofei Sun , Ning Lin , Xingtao Song , Yunfan Yang , Jie Tian , Yang Liu , Ji-Rong Wen , Xiaoye Zhang , Xueshun Shen , Hao Sun

Precipitation nowcasting, which aims to provide high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation forecasts by leveraging current radar observations, is a core task in regional weather forecasting. Recently, the cascaded architecture has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Fanbo Ju , Haiyuan Shi , Qingjian Ni

Precipitation prediction has undergone a profound transformation. A notable limitation of traditional NWP is the need for extensive statistical post-processing. To address this challenge, neural network-based approaches were developed.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Yugong Zeng , Jiayuan Wang , Jonathan Wu
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