Related papers: Derivation of macroscopic epidemic models from mul…
Advances in synthetic biology allow us to engineer bacterial collectives with pre-specified characteristics. However, the behavior of these collectives is difficult to understand, as cellular growth and division as well as extra-cellular…
We present a modeling framework for dynamical and bursty contact networks made of agents in social interaction. We consider agents' behavior at short time scales, in which the contact network is formed by disconnected cliques of different…
Social-ecological systems research aims to understand the nature of social-ecological phenomena, to find ways to foster or manage conditions under which desired phenomena occur or to reduce the negative consequences of undesirable…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
The contact structure of the population shapes the progression of epidemics. Nonetheless, the joint evolution of individual behavioral adaptations and disease dynamics on networks remains poorly understood. We use a…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…
This thesis presents the theoretical, conceptual and methodological aspects that support the modeling of dynamical systems (DS) by using several agents. The modeling approach permits the assessment of properties representing order, change,…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
This study presents an integrated approach to understanding epidemic dynamics through a stochastic spatio-temporal simulation model on a multiplex network, blending physical and informational layers. The physical layer maps the geographic…
We study the epidemic spreading on spatial networks where the probability that two nodes are connected decays with their distance as a power law. As the exponent of the distance dependence grows, model networks smoothly transition from the…
One of the aims of systems biology is to build multiple layered and multiple scale models of living systems which can efficiently describe phenomena occurring at various level of resolution. Such models should consist of layers of various…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
Human behaviour strongly influences the spread of infectious diseases: understanding the interplay between epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviours is essential to improve response strategies to epidemics, with the goal of containing the…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold…
The challenges posed by epidemics and pandemics are immense, especially if the causes are novel. This article introduces a versatile open-source simulation framework designed to model intricate dynamics of infectious diseases across diverse…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
The emergence of dynamical structures in multi-agent systems is analysed. Three different mechanisms are identified, namely: (1) sensitive-dependence and convex coupling, (2) sensitive-dependence and extremal dynamics and (3) interaction…
Most infectious diseases spread on a dynamic network of human interactions. Recent studies of social dynamics have provided evidence that spreading patterns may depend strongly on detailed micro-dynamics of the social system. We have…