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Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Learning-based methodologies increasingly find applications in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving and medical robotics. Due to the rare nature of dangerous events, real-world testing is prohibitively expensive and unscalable.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Aman Sinha , Matthew O'Kelly , Russ Tedrake , John Duchi

We develop a novel computational method for evaluating the extreme excursion probabilities arising from random initialization of nonlinear dynamical systems. The method uses excursion probability theory to formulate a sequence of Bayesian…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-06-08 Vishwas Rao , Romit Maulik , Emil Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

The indeterminate nature of human motion requires trajectory prediction systems to use a probabilistic model to formulate the multi-modality phenomenon and infer a finite set of future trajectories. However, the inference processes of most…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Guangyi Chen , Zhenhao Chen , Shunxing Fan , Kun Zhang

In this paper, we investigate a deep learning method for predicting path-dependent processes based on discretely observed historical information. This method is implemented by considering the prediction as a nonparametric regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-20 Xudong Zheng , Yuecai Han

We present the fundamentals of a measure transport approach to sampling. The idea is to construct a deterministic coupling---i.e., a transport map---between a complex "target" probability measure of interest and a simpler reference measure.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Youssef Marzouk , Tarek Moselhy , Matthew Parno , Alessio Spantini

Probabilistic sampling methods have become very popular to solve single-shot path planning problems. Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (RRTs) in particular have been shown to be very efficient in solving high dimensional problems. Even though…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2009-12-03 Nicolas A. Barriga , Mauricio Araya-López , Mauricio Solar

This paper presents a novel method for reformulating non-differentiable collision avoidance constraints into smooth nonlinear constraints using strong duality of convex optimization. We focus on a controlled object whose goal is to avoid…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Xiaojing Zhang , Alexander Liniger , Francesco Borrelli

Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-05 Jiayao Shao , Tobias Grafke , Robert S. MacKay

Sampling-based algorithms are widely used for motion planning in high-dimensional configuration spaces. However, due to low sampling efficiency, their performance often diminishes in complex configuration spaces with narrow corridors.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Lu Huang , Lingxiao Meng , Jiankun Wang , Xingjian Jing

Efficiency of search for randomly distributed targets is a prominent problem in many branches of the sciences. For the stochastic process of L\'evy walks, a specific range of optimal efficiencies was suggested under variation of search…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-11 S. Mohsen J. Khadem , Sabine H. L. Klapp , Rainer Klages

Trajectory following is one of the complicated control problems when its dynamics are nonlinear, stochastic and include a large number of parameters. The problem has significant difficulties including a large number of trials required for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-02-14 Ali Lenjani

The continuous variable quantum computing platform constitutes a promising candidate for realizing quantum advantage, as exemplified in Gaussian Boson Sampling. While noise in the experiments makes the computation attainable for classical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-11 Jonas Vinther , Michael James Kastoryano

Forecasting the future trajectories of surrounding agents is crucial for autonomous vehicles to ensure safe, efficient, and comfortable route planning. While model ensembling has improved prediction accuracy in various fields, its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Aron Distelzweig , Eitan Kosman , Andreas Look , Faris Janjoš , Denesh K. Manivannan , Abhinav Valada

This paper considers an optimization problem for a dynamical system whose evolution depends on a collection of binary decision variables. We develop scalable approximation algorithms with provable suboptimality bounds to provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-31 Insoon Yang , Samuel A. Burden , Ram Rajagopal , S. Shankar Sastry , Claire J. Tomlin

While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-08 P. S. Koutsourelakis , Elias Bilionis

Efficient and robust path planning hinges on combining all accessible information sources. In particular, the task of path planning for robotic environmental exploration and monitoring depends highly on the current belief of the world. To…

We consider systems of stochastic differential equations with multiple scales and small noise and assume that the coefficients of the equations are ergodic and stationary random fields. Our goal is to construct provably-efficient importance…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-29 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Trajectory optimization is a fundamental stochastic optimal control problem. This paper deals with a trajectory optimization approach for dynamical systems subject to measurement noise that can be fitted into linear time-varying stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-24 Prakash Mallick , Zhiyong Chen

Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini