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Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…

Single-molecule experiments are a unique tool to characterize the structural dynamics of biomolecules. However, reconstructing molecular details from noisy single-molecule data is challenging. Simulation-based inference (SBI) integrates…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-10-22 Lars Dingeldein , Pilar Cossio , Roberto Covino

Simulation-based Inference (SBI) is a widely used set of algorithms to learn the parameters of complex scientific simulation models. While primarily run on CPUs in HPC clusters, these algorithms have been shown to scale in performance when…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Sourabh Kulkarni , Csaba Andras Moritz

Bayesian inference typically relies on a large number of model evaluations to estimate posterior distributions. Established methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) can become computationally…

A growing family of approaches to causal inference rely on Bayesian formulations of assumptions that go beyond causal graph structure. For example, Bayesian approaches have been developed for analyzing instrumental variable designs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Sam Witty , David Jensen , Vikash Mansinghka

The standard approach to inference from cosmic large-scale structure data employs summary statistics that are compared to analytic models in a Gaussian likelihood with pre-computed covariance. To overcome the idealising assumptions about…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-24 Kiyam Lin , Maximilian von Wietersheim-Kramsta , Benjamin Joachimi , Stephen Feeney

Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Julius Vetter , Manuel Gloeckler , Daniel Gedon , Jakob H. Macke

Almost all fields of science rely upon statistical inference to estimate unknown parameters in theoretical and computational models. While the performance of modern computer hardware continues to grow, the computational requirements for the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-25 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) aims to efficiently use experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Model parameter inference is a universal problem across science. This challenge is particularly pronounced in developmental biology, where faithful mechanistic descriptions require spatial-stochastic models with numerous parameters, yet…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-07-16 Michael A. Ramirez-Sierra , Thomas R. Sokolowski

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T Radev

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables cosmological parameter estimation when closed-form likelihoods or models are unavailable. However, SBI relies on machine learning for neural compression and density estimation. This requires large…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-29 Alex A. Saoulis , Davide Piras , Niall Jeffrey , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Ana M. G. Ferreira , Benjamin Joachimi

Simulation-based inference (SBI) makes it possible to infer the parameters of a model from high-dimensional low-level features of the observed events. In this work we show how this method can be used to establish the presence of a weak…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-07-31 Kierthika Chathirathas , Torben Ferber , Felix Kahlhoefer , Alessandro Morandini

For complex simulation problems, inferring parameters often precludes the use of classical likelihood-based techniques due to intractable likelihoods. Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods offer a likelihood-free approach to directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Haley Rosso , Talea Mayo

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Peter Collett , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Simone Casolo , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Emanuel Sommer , Lisa Wimmer , Theodore Papamarkou , Ludwig Bothmann , Bernd Bischl , David Rügamer

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) describes an emerging family of methods for Bayesian inference with intractable likelihood functions that use neural networks as surrogate models. Here we introduce sbijax, a Python package that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira , Carlo Albert