Related papers: Distilling Analysis from Generative Models for Inv…
Financial institutions mostly deal with people. Therefore, characterizing different kinds of human behavior can greatly help institutions for improving their relation with customers and with regulatory offices. In many of such interactions,…
Addressing decision-making problems using sequence modeling to predict future trajectories shows promising results in recent years. In this paper, we take a step further to leverage the sequence predictive method in wider areas such as…
Modelling other agents' behaviors plays an important role in decision models for interactions among multiple agents. To optimise its own decisions, a subject agent needs to model what other agents act simultaneously in an uncertain…
The macroeconomy is a sophisticated dynamic system involving significant uncertainties that complicate modelling. In response, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations which are…
Strategic classification studies the problem where self-interested individuals or agents manipulate their response to obtain favorable decision outcomes made by classifiers, typically turning to dishonest actions when they are less costly…
Expert workers make non-trivial decisions with significant implications. Experts' decision accuracy is thus a fundamental aspect of their judgment quality, key to both management and consumers of experts' services. Yet, in many important…
Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…
Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price dynamics resulting from the collective…
Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable performance in generation tasks. Nevertheless, explaining the diffusion process remains challenging due to it being a sequence of denoising noisy images that are difficult for experts to…
Do language models make decisions under uncertainty like humans do, and what role does chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning play in the underlying decision process? We introduce an active probabilistic reasoning task that cleanly separates…
In this paper, we present a data science automation system called Prediction Factory. The system uses several key automation algorithms to enable data scientists to rapidly develop predictive models and share them with domain experts. To…
When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A…
We consider the problem of third-person imitation learning with the additional challenge that the learner must select the perspective from which they observe the expert. In our setting, each perspective provides only limited information…
Recommender systems serve as foundational infrastructure in modern information ecosystems, helping users navigate digital content and discover items aligned with their preferences. At their core, recommender systems address a fundamental…
This article outlines a method for automatically generating models of dynamic decision-making that both have strong predictive power and are interpretable in human terms. This is useful for designing empirically grounded agent-based…
Existing well investigated Predictive Process Monitoring techniques typically construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it…
This paper introduces a Markov chain approach that allows a rigorous analysis of agent based opinion dynamics as well as other related agent based models (ABM). By viewing the ABM dynamics as a micro description of the process, we show how…
A deterministic trading strategy by a representative investor on a single market asset, which generates complex and realistic returns with its first four moments similar to the empirical values of European stock indices, is used to simulate…
As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for…
A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of…