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When network and graph theory are used in the study of complex systems, a typically finite set of nodes of the network under consideration is frequently either explicitly or implicitly considered representative of a much larger finite or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-18 Jobst Heitzig , Jonathan F. Donges , Yong Zou , Norbert Marwan , Jürgen Kurths

Predicting edge weights on graphs has various applications, from transportation systems to social networks. This paper describes a Graph Neural Network (GNN) approach for edge weight prediction with guaranteed coverage. We leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

Prognostic models in survival analysis are aimed at understanding the relationship between patients' covariates and the distribution of survival time. Traditionally, semi-parametric models, such as the Cox model, have been assumed. These…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-06 Denise Rava , Jelena Bradic

Triangular arbitrage is a profitable trading strategy in financial markets that exploits discrepancies in currency exchange rates. Traditional methods for detecting triangular arbitrage opportunities, such as exhaustive search algorithms…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-14 Di Zhang

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a predominant method for graph representation learning. However, beyond subgraph frequency estimation, their application to network motif significance-profile (SP) prediction remains under-explored, with no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Pedro C. Vieira , Miguel E. P. Silva , Pedro Manuel Pinto Ribeiro

Traditionally, community detection in graphs can be solved using spectral methods or posterior inference under probabilistic graphical models. Focusing on random graph families such as the stochastic block model, recent research has unified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-11 Zhengdao Chen , Xiang Li , Joan Bruna

The assessment of highly-risky situations at road intersections have been recently revealed as an important research topic within the context of the automotive industry. In this paper we shall introduce a novel approach to compute risk…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Alejandro Chinea Manrique De Lara , Michel Parent

I propose an estimation algorithm for Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM), a popular statistical network model for estimating the structural parameters of strategic network formation in economics and finance. Existing methods often…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-09 Yoon Choi

The recent rapid growth in mobile data traffic entails a pressing demand for improving the throughput of the underlying wireless communication networks. Network node deployment has been considered as an effective approach for throughput…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Yifei Yang , Dongmian Zou , Xiaofan He

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), especially message-passing neural networks (MPNNs), have emerged as powerful architectures for learning on graphs in diverse applications. However, MPNNs face challenges when modeling non-local interactions in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-31 Ilyes Batatia , Lars L. Schaaf , Huajie Chen , Gábor Csányi , Christoph Ortner , Felix A. Faber

This work develops a distributed graph neural network (GNN) methodology for mesh-based modeling applications using a consistent neural message passing layer. As the name implies, the focus is on enabling scalable operations that satisfy…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Shivam Barwey , Riccardo Balin , Bethany Lusch , Saumil Patel , Ramesh Balakrishnan , Pinaki Pal , Romit Maulik , Venkatram Vishwanath

Graphical models are widely used in diverse application domains to model the conditional dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. In this paper, we consider settings where the graph structure is covariate-dependent, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-24 Jiahe Lin , Yikai Zhang , George Michailidis

We study the approximation power of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) on latent position random graphs. In the large graph limit, GNNs are known to converge to certain "continuous" models known as c-GNNs, which directly enables a study of their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-01 Nicolas Keriven , Alberto Bietti , Samuel Vaiter

We present a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using customized graph neural networks to incorporate spillover effects across stocks. The proposed model offers the benefits of incorporating…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-04 Chao Zhang , Xingyue Pu , Mihai Cucuringu , Xiaowen Dong

Aiming at the limitations of traditional medical decision system in processing large-scale heterogeneous medical data and realizing highly personalized recommendation, this paper introduces a personalized medical decision algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Yafeng Yan , Shuyao He , Zhou Yu , Jiajie Yuan , Ziang Liu , Yan Chen

A major problem of making friend suggestions in social networks is the large size of social graphs, which can have hundreds of millions of people and tens of billions of connections. Classic methods based on heuristics or factorizations are…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Evgeny Zamyatin

Predicting the bankruptcy risk of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is an important step for financial institutions when making decisions about loans. Existing studies in both finance and AI research fields, however, tend to only…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-10 Yu Zhao , Shaopeng Wei , Yu Guo , Qing Yang , Xingyan Chen , Qing Li , Fuzhen Zhuang , Ji Liu , Gang Kou

We study a recent class of models which uses graph neural networks (GNNs) to improve forecasting in multivariate time series. The core assumption behind these models is that there is a latent graph between the time series (nodes) that…

In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been widely applied in tackling combinatorial optimization problems. However, existing methods still suffer from limited accuracy when addressing that on complex graphs and exhibit poor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Yuyao Long

We present a formal measure-theoretical theory of neural networks (NN) built on probability coupling theory. Our main contributions are summarized as follows. * Built on the formalism of probability coupling theory, we derive an algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-03 Shuai Li