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Black-box large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in various environments, making it essential for these models to effectively convey their confidence and uncertainty, especially in high-stakes settings. However, these models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Jeremy Qin , Bang Liu , Quoc Dinh Nguyen

The handling of probabilities in the form of uncertainty or partial information is an essential task for LLMs in many settings and applications. A common approach to evaluate an LLM's probabilistic reasoning capabilities is to assess its…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Manuel Mondal , Ljiljana Dolamic , Gérôme Bovet , Philippe Cudré-Mauroux , Julien Audiffren

Estimating the log-likelihood of a given sentence under an autoregressive language model is straightforward: one can simply apply the chain rule and sum the log-likelihood values for each successive token. However, for masked language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Carina Kauf , Anna Ivanova

Many commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) are often closed-source, limiting developers to prompt tuning for aligning content generation with specific applications. While these models currently do not provide access to token logits, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Gaurush Hiranandani , Haolun Wu , Subhojyoti Mukherjee , Sanmi Koyejo

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks with just a few examples, but their predictions often suffer from systematic biases, leading to unstable performance in classification. While calibration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Korel Gundem , Juncheng Dong , Dennis Zhang , Vahid Tarokh , Zhengling Qi

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

Safety alignment in Large Language Models (LLMs) often creates a systematic discrepancy between a model's aligned output and the underlying pre-aligned data distribution. We propose a framework in which the effect of safety alignment on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Yuxuan Lu , Yongkang Guo , Yuqing Kong

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited an impressive capability to perform reasoning tasks, especially if they are encouraged to generate a sequence of intermediate steps. Reasoning performance can be improved by suitably combining…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Soumyasundar Pal , Didier Chételat , Yingxue Zhang , Mark Coates

Safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) may benefit from a reliable method for assessing their generated content to determine when to abstain or to selectively generate. While likelihood-based metrics such as perplexity are widely…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Jie Ren , Yao Zhao , Tu Vu , Peter J. Liu , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) are propelling us toward artificial general intelligence with their remarkable emergent abilities and reasoning capabilities. However, the substantial computational and memory requirements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Ruihao Gong , Yang Yong , Shiqiao Gu , Yushi Huang , Chengtao Lv , Yunchen Zhang , Xianglong Liu , Dacheng Tao

In search settings, calibrating the scores during the ranking process to quantities such as click-through rates or relevance levels enhances a system's usefulness and trustworthiness for downstream users. While previous research has…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Puxuan Yu , Daniel Cohen , Hemank Lamba , Joel Tetreault , Alex Jaimes

Prior-weighted logistic regression has become a standard tool for calibration in speaker recognition. Logistic regression is the optimization of the expected value of the logarithmic scoring rule. We generalize this via a parametric family…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-31 Niko Brümmer , George Doddington

Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) achieve strong multimodal reasoning but frequently exhibit hallucinations and incorrect responses with high certainty, which hinders their usage in high-stakes domains. Existing verbalized confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Wenyi Xiao , Xinchi Xu , Leilei Gan

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong math reasoning abilities through Reinforcement Learning with *Verifiable Rewards* (RLVR), many advanced mathematical problems are proof-based, with no guaranteed way to determine…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Haotong Yang , Zitong Wang , Shijia Kang , Siqi Yang , Wenkai Yu , Xu Niu , Yike Sun , Yi Hu , Zhouchen Lin , Muhan Zhang

Extreme multi-label classification (XMLC) is a learning task of tagging instances with a small subset of relevant labels chosen from an extremely large pool of possible labels. Problems of this scale can be efficiently handled by organizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-24 Kalina Jasinska-Kobus , Marek Wydmuch , Krzysztof Dembczynski , Mikhail Kuznetsov , Robert Busa-Fekete

This paper introduces distribution-based prediction, a novel approach to using Large Language Models (LLMs) as predictive tools by interpreting output token probabilities as distributions representing the models' learned representation of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Caleb Bradshaw , Caelen Miller , Sean Warnick

The impressive linguistic abilities of large language models (LLMs) have recommended them as models of human sentence processing, with some conjecturing a positive 'quality-power' relationship (Wilcox et al., 2023), in which language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Yi-Chien Lin , Hongao Zhu , William Schuler

Large language models (LLMs), with advanced linguistic capabilities, have been employed in reranking tasks through a sequence-to-sequence approach. In this paradigm, multiple passages are reranked in a listwise manner and a textual reranked…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Ruiyang Ren , Yuhao Wang , Kun Zhou , Wayne Xin Zhao , Wenjie Wang , Jing Liu , Ji-Rong Wen , Tat-Seng Chua

Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from black-box models. However, how LLMs internally generate such scores remains unknown. We address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Dharshan Kumaran , Arthur Conmy , Federico Barbero , Simon Osindero , Viorica Patraucean , Petar Veličković

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yuta Kobayashi , Vincent Jeanselme , Shalmali Joshi
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