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Treatment policy estimands are frequently favored by regulators, as they assess the effect of treatment assignment regardless of post-randomization events. Despite best efforts, missing data due to study discontinuation cannot be fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Ajmal Oodally , Craig Wang , Zheng Li , Tim Morris , Tobias Mütze , Arunava Chakravartty

Statistical hypothesis testing serves as statistical evidence for scientific innovation. However, if the reported results are intentionally biased, hypothesis testing no longer controls the rate of false discovery. In particular, we study…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-12 Junpei Komiyama , Takanori Maehara

While there exists a large amount of literature on the general challenges of and best practices for trustworthy online A/B testing, there are limited studies on sample size estimation, which plays a crucial role in trustworthy and efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-21 Jing Zhou , Jiannan Lu , Anas Shallah

The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is an experimental design that can be used to develop optimal mobile health interventions. In MRTs, interventions in the form of notifications or messages are sent through smart phones to individuals,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-14 Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

Despite the potential impact of explanations on decision making, there is a lack of research on quantifying their effect on users' choices. This paper presents an experimental protocol for measuring the degree to which positively or…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Krisztian Balog , Filip Radlinski , Andrey Petrov

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-08 Chencheng Cai , Xu Zhang , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Online controlled experiments are a crucial tool to allow for confident decision-making in technology companies. A North Star metric is defined (such as long-term revenue or user retention), and system variants that statistically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Olivier Jeunen , Aleksei Ustimenko

Recommender systems can be a helpful tool for recommending content but they can also influence users' preferences. One sociological theory for this influence is that companies are incentivised to influence preferences to make users easier…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Jonathan H. Rystrøm

We consider a causal inference problem frequently encountered in online advertising systems, where a publisher (e.g., Instagram, TikTok) interacts repeatedly with human users and advertisers by sporadically displaying to each user an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Jia Yuan Yu

The study of online decision-making problems that leverage contextual information has drawn notable attention due to their significant applications in fields ranging from healthcare to autonomous systems. In modern applications, contextual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-22 Qiyu Han , Will Wei Sun , Yichen Zhang

Social influence is ubiquitous in cultural markets, from book recommendations in Amazon, to song popularities in iTunes and the ranking of newspaper articles in the online edition of the New York Times to mention only a few. Yet social…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-05-26 Pascal Van Hentenryck , Andres Abeliuk , Franco Berbeglia , Gerardo Berbeglia

Randomized experiments (A/B testings) have become the standard way for web-facing companies to guide innovation, evaluate new products, and prioritize ideas. There are times, however, when running an experiment is too complicated (e.g., we…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-20 Iavor Bojinov , Ye Tu , Min Liu , Ya Xu

We investigate large-sample properties of treatment effect estimators under unknown interference in randomized experiments. The inferential target is a generalization of the average treatment effect estimand that marginalizes over potential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Fredrik Sävje , Peter M. Aronow , Michael G. Hudgens

Technology firms conduct randomized controlled experiments ("A/B tests") to learn which actions to take to improve business outcomes. In firms with mature experimentation platforms, experimentation programs can consist of many thousands of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Winston Chou , Colin Gray , Nathan Kallus , Aurélien Bibaut , Simon Ejdemyr

The conclusions of randomized controlled trials may be biased when the outcome of one unit depends on the treatment status of other units, a problem known as interference. In this work, we study interference in the setting of one-sided…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-01 Jennifer Brennan , Vahab Mirrokni , Jean Pouget-Abadie

Online experiments in internet systems, also known as A/B tests, are used for a wide range of system tuning problems, such as optimizing recommender system ranking policies and learning adaptive streaming controllers. Decision-makers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Qing Feng , Samuel Daulton , Benjamin Letham , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Predicting which action (treatment) will lead to a better outcome is a central task in decision support systems. To build a prediction model in real situations, learning from biased observational data is a critical issue due to the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Akira Tanimoto , Tomoya Sakai , Takashi Takenouchi , Hisashi Kashima

A/B testing is critical for modern technological companies to evaluate the effectiveness of newly developed products against standard baselines. This paper studies optimal designs that aim to maximize the amount of information obtained from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Ting Li , Chengchun Shi , Jianing Wang , Fan Zhou , Hongtu Zhu

We develop randomization-based tests for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of network interference. Leveraging the exposure mapping framework, we study a broad class of null hypotheses that represent various forms of constant…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-25 Julius Owusu