English
Related papers

Related papers: Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective

200 papers

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Simulating complex physical systems is crucial for understanding and predicting phenomena across diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics and heat transfer, as well as plasma physics and structural mechanics. Traditional approaches rely on…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular frequentist framework for representing uncertainty by providing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true label with a user-adjustable probability. In most applications, CP operates on…

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

Conformal prediction (CP) was developed to provide finite-sample probabilistic prediction guarantees. While CP algorithms are a relatively general-purpose approach to uncertainty quantification, with finite-sample guarantees, they lack…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Jonathan P Williams

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 David Stutz , Abhijit Guha Roy , Tatiana Matejovicova , Patricia Strachan , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Matteo Sesia , Stefano Favaro

Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson , Vadim Sokolov , Daniel Zantedeschi

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the methodology and theory behind several different methods in the conformal prediction literature, which includes standard conformal prediction (CP), weighted conformal prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Rina Foygel Barber , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Douglas Spencer , Samual Nicholls , Michele Caprio

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-16 Raphael Rossellini , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès