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In this study, we address causal inference when only observational data and a valid causal ordering from the causal graph are available. We introduce a set of flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Minh Khoa Le , Kien Do , Truyen Tran

We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Weronika Ormaniec , Scott Sussex , Lars Lorch , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

Standard supervised learning breaks down under data distribution shift. However, the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM, Peters et al. (2017)) can turn this weakness into an opportunity: one can take advantage of distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Jens Müller , Robert Schmier , Lynton Ardizzone , Carsten Rother , Ullrich Köthe

We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-19 Alvaro Ribot , Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

Structural Nested Mean Models (SNMMs) are useful for causal inference of treatment effects in longitudinal observational studies. Most existing works assume that the data are collected at pre-fixed time points for all subjects, which,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-13 Shu Yang

One of the central elements of any causal inference is an object called structural causal model (SCM), which represents a collection of mechanisms and exogenous sources of random variation of the system under investigation (Pearl, 2000). An…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-05 Kevin Xia , Kai-Zhan Lee , Yoshua Bengio , Elias Bareinboim

Structural causal models (SCMs), also known as (nonparametric) structural equation models (SEMs), are widely used for causal modeling purposes. In particular, acyclic SCMs, also known as recursive SEMs, form a well-studied subclass of SCMs…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Stephan Bongers , Patrick Forré , Jonas Peters , Joris M. Mooij

Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in causal inference, especially in the presence of latent confounders. This paper focuses on estimating causal effects in Gaussian Linear Structural Causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Aurghya Maiti , Prateek Jain

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Jana Kleinemeier , Nadja Klein

For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-02 Trent Kyono , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper presents a topological learning-theoretic perspective on causal inference by introducing a series of topologies defined on general spaces of structural causal models (SCMs). As an illustration of the framework we prove a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Duligur Ibeling , Thomas Icard

Learning the kernel parameters for Gaussian processes is often the computational bottleneck in applications such as online learning, Bayesian optimization, or active learning. Amortizing parameter inference over different datasets is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Matthias Bitzer , Mona Meister , Christoph Zimmer

We propose a novel amortized variational inference scheme for an empirical Bayes meta-learning model, where model parameters are treated as latent variables. We learn the prior distribution over model parameters conditioned on limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-31 Ekaterina Iakovleva , Jakob Verbeek , Karteek Alahari

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Antoine Wehenkel , Michael Kagan , Lukas Heinrich , Chris Pollard

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Sarthak Mittal , Niels Leif Bracher , Guillaume Lajoie , Priyank Jaini , Marcus Brubaker

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Tomas Geffner , George Papamakarios , Andriy Mnih

Without loss of generality, existing machine learning techniques may learn spurious correlation dependent on the domain, which exacerbates the generalization of models in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this issue, recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Bin Qin , Jiangmeng Li , Yi Li , Xuesong Wu , Yupeng Wang , Wenwen Qiang , Jianwen Cao

Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-26 Joseph Marino , Yisong Yue , Stephan Mandt

The mainstream of data-driven abstractive summarization models tends to explore the correlations rather than the causal relationships. Among such correlations, there can be spurious ones which suffer from the language prior learned from the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-25 Lu Chen , Ruqing Zhang , Wei Huang , Wei Chen , Jiafeng Guo , Xueqi Cheng