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Adaptive experiment is widely adopted to estimate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) in clinical trials and many other scenarios. While the primary goal in experiment is to maximize estimation accuracy, due to the imperative of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Jiachun Li , Kaining Shi , David Simchi-Levi

Unbiased and consistent variance estimators generally do not exist for design-based treatment effect estimators because experimenters never observe more than one potential outcome for any unit. The problem is exacerbated by interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-04 Christopher Harshaw , Joel A. Middleton , Fredrik Sävje

Bayesian optimal experimental design is a sub-field of statistics focused on developing methods to make efficient use of experimental resources. Any potential design is evaluated in terms of a utility function, such as the (theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-21 Noble Kennamer , Steven Walton , Alexander Ihler

Motivated by modern applications such as computerized adaptive testing, sequential rank aggregation, and heterogeneous data source selection, we study the problem of active sequential estimation, which involves adaptively selecting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Xiaoou Li , Hongru Zhao

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

e consider the experimental design problem in an online environment, an important practical task for reducing the variance of estimates in randomized experiments which allows for greater precision, and in turn, improved decision making. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 David Arbour , Drew Dimmery , Tung Mai , Anup Rao

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional end-of-trial point estimate of a treatment effect is prone to bias, that is, a systematic tendency to deviate from its true value. As stated in recent FDA guidance on adaptive designs, it is…

In this paper, we consider a best action identification problem in the stochastic linear bandit setup with a fixed confident constraint. In the considered best action identification problem, instead of minimizing the accumulative regret as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Jun Geng , Lifeng Lai

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate $\hat{\beta}$ of the hidden parameter $\beta^{\star}$ of an underlying linear model. The key…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-01 Xavier Fontaine , Pierre Perrault , Michal Valko , Vianney Perchet

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Yichun Hu , Nathan Kallus

In precision medicine, one of the most important problems is estimating the optimal individualized treatment rules (ITR), which typically involves recommending treatment decisions based on fully observed individual characteristics of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Yue Zhang , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng , Yangbo He

In longitudinal studies, we observe measurements of the same variables at different time points to track the changes in their pattern over time. In such studies, scheduling of the data collection waves (i.e. time of participants' visits) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-30 Li Xing , Xuekui Zhang , Ardo van den Hout , Scott Hofer , Graciela Muniz Terrera

We introduce the "inverse bandit" problem of estimating the rewards of a multi-armed bandit instance from observing the learning process of a low-regret demonstrator. Existing approaches to the related problem of inverse reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Kumar Krishna Agrawal , Aditya Grover , Vidya Muthukumar , Ashwin Pananjady

This paper considers the estimation of treatment effects in randomized experiments with complex experimental designs, including cases with interference between units. We develop a design-based estimation theory for arbitrary experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-27 Haoge Chang

Suppose that we intend to perform an experiment consisting of a set of independent trials. The mean value of the response of each trial is assumed to be equal to the sum of the effect of the treatment selected for the trial, and some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-21 Samuel Rosa , Radoslav Harman

We consider the problem of constructing optimal designs for population pharmacokinetics which use random effect models. It is common practice in the design of experiments in such studies to assume uncorrelated errors for each subject. In…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-16 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Tim Holland-Letz

We study the problem of treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments with high-dimensional covariate information, and show that essentially any risk-consistent regression adjustment can be used to obtain efficient estimates of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-08 Stefan Wager , Wenfei Du , Jonathan Taylor , Robert Tibshirani

For biological experiments aiming at calibrating models with unknown parameters, a good experimental design is crucial, especially for those subject to various constraints, such as financial limitations, time consumption and physical…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-22 Xiao Lin , Gabriel Terejanu

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

Bandit algorithms are increasingly used in real-world sequential decision-making problems. Associated with this is an increased desire to be able to use the resulting datasets to answer scientific questions like: Did one type of ad lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Kelly W. Zhang , Lucas Janson , Susan A. Murphy