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To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-06 Dan Ley , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller

Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-13 Krikamol Muandet , Motonobu Kanagawa , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Sanparith Marukatat

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are a popular approach for interpreting machine learning predictions by identifying minimal feature changes that alter model outputs. However, in real-world settings, users often refine feasibility…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Christos Fragkathoulas , Evaggelia Pitoura

Vision-language models (VLMs) such as CLIP demonstrate strong generalization in zero-shot classification but remain highly vulnerable to adversarial perturbations. Existing methods primarily focus on adversarial fine-tuning or prompt…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Xingyu Zhu , Beier Zhu , Shuo Wang , Kesen Zhao , Hanwang Zhang

In factual question answering, many errors are not failures of access but failures of commitment: the system retrieves relevant evidence, yet still settles on the wrong answer. We present CounterRefine, a lightweight repair layer for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Tianyi Huang , Ying Kai Deng

In this paper, we address the limitations of traditional teacher-student models, imitation learning, and behaviour cloning in the context of Autonomous/Automated Driving Systems (ADS), where these methods often struggle with incomplete…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Amir Samadi , Konstantinos Koufos , Kurt Debattista , Mehrdad Dianati

In the environment of fair lending laws and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the ability to explain a model's prediction is of paramount importance. High quality explanations are the first step in assessing fairness.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Rachana Balasubramanian , Samuel Sharpe , Brian Barr , Jason Wittenbach , C. Bayan Bruss

Plausibility Estimation (PE) plays a crucial role for enabling language models to objectively comprehend the real world. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in PE tasks but sometimes produce trivial…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Chong Liu , Zaiwen Feng , Lin Liu , Zhenyun Deng , Jiuyong Li , Ruifang Zhai , Debo Cheng , Li Qin

We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Jianle Sun , Kun Zhang

We present PPCEF, a novel method for generating probabilistically plausible counterfactual explanations (CFs). PPCEF advances beyond existing methods by combining a probabilistic formulation that leverages the data distribution with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Patryk Wielopolski , Oleksii Furman , Jerzy Stefanowski , Maciej Zięba

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) attempts to predict the performance of counterfactual policies using log data from a different policy. We extend its applicability by developing an OPE method for a class of both full support and deficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Yusuke Narita , Kyohei Okumura , Akihiro Shimizu , Kohei Yata

Domain shift, encountered when using a trained model for a new patient population, creates significant challenges for sequential decision making in healthcare since the target domain may be both data-scarce and confounded. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Taylor W. Killian , Marzyeh Ghassemi , Shalmali Joshi

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Counterfactual explanations focus on "actionable knowledge" to help end-users understand how a machine learning outcome could be changed to a more desirable outcome. For this purpose a counterfactual explainer needs to discover input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Nirmalie Wiratunga , Anjana Wijekoon , Ikechukwu Nkisi-Orji , Kyle Martin , Chamath Palihawadana , David Corsar

We introduce Aumann-SHAP, an interaction-aware framework that decomposes counterfactual transitions by restricting the model to a local hypercube connecting baseline and counterfactual features. Each hyper-cube is decomposed into a grid in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Adam Belahcen , Stéphane Mussard

There is a growing interest in understanding arguments' strength in Quantitative Bipolar Argumentation Frameworks (QBAFs). Most existing studies focus on attribution-based methods that explain an argument's strength by assigning importance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Xiang Yin , Nico Potyka , Francesca Toni

Structural models that admit multiple reduced forms, such as game-theoretic models with multiple equilibria, pose challenges in practice, especially when parameters are set-identified and the identified set is large. In such cases,…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Nathan Canen , Kyungchul Song

We study how reliably sparse autoencoders (SAEs) support claims about reasoning-related internal features in large language models. We first give a stylized analysis showing that sparsity-regularized decoding can preferentially retain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 George Ma , Zhongyuan Liang , Irene Y. Chen , Somayeh Sojoudi

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) allows us to capture the complex relationship between multiple inputs and outputs in firms and organizations. Unfortunately, managers may find it hard to understand a DEA model and this may lead to mistrust…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-15 Peter Bogetoft , Jasone Ramírez-Ayerbe , Dolores Romero Morales

In causal inference, the joint law of a set of counterfactual random variables is generally not identified. We show that a conservative version of the joint law - corresponding to the smallest treatment effect - is identified. Finding this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-20 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward Kennedy , Larry Wasserman
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