Related papers: Precise Model Benchmarking with Only a Few Observa…

Language models (LMs) are statistical models trained to assign probability to human-generated text. As such, it is reasonable to question whether they approximate linguistic variability exhibited by humans well. This form of statistical…

The Normal Means problem plays a fundamental role in many areas of modern high-dimensional statistics, both in theory and practice. And the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach to solving this problem has been shown to be highly effective, again…

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…

Large language models are increasingly relied upon as sources of information, but their propensity for generating false or misleading statements with high confidence poses risks for users and society. In this paper, we confront the critical…

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a significant "embodiment gap", where their text-based representations fail to align with human sensorimotor experiences. This study systematically investigates whether and how task-specific fine-tuning…

Earlier studies have shown that classification accuracies of Bayesian networks (BNs) obtained by maximizing the conditional log likelihood (CLL) of a class variable, given the feature variables, were higher than those obtained by maximizing…

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, generating factually incorrect or misleading outputs. Uncertainty estimation, often…

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

We propose a general-purpose approach for improving the ability of large language models (LLMs) to intelligently and adaptively gather information from a user or other external source using the framework of sequential Bayesian experimental…

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM…

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, accurately assessing their confidence is crucial. Humans typically express confidence through epistemic markers (e.g., "fairly confident") instead of numerical…

This paper investigates the reliability of explanations generated by large language models (LLMs) when prompted to explain their previous output. We evaluate two kinds of such self-explanations - extractive and counterfactual - using three…

Accurate estimation of project costs and durations remains a pivotal challenge in software engineering, directly impacting budgeting and resource management. Traditional estimation techniques, although widely utilized, often fall short due…

Dealing with biased data samples is a common task across many statistical fields. In survey sampling, bias often occurs due to unrepresentative samples. In causal studies with observational data, the treated versus untreated group…

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled a range of applications in zero-shot and few-shot learning settings, including the generation of synthetic datasets for training and testing. However, to reliably use these synthetic datasets, it is…

Emerging techniques in computer science make it possible to "brain scan" large language models (LLMs), identify the plain-English concepts that guide their reasoning, and steer them while holding other factors constant. We show that this…

Large language models (LLMs) present novel opportunities in public opinion research by predicting survey responses in advance during the early stages of survey design. Prior methods steer LLMs via descriptions of subpopulations as LLMs'…

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of generating plausible explanations of how they arrived at an answer to a question. However, these explanations can misrepresent the model's "reasoning" process, i.e., they can be unfaithful. This,…

Identifying leading measurement units from a large collection is a common inference task in various domains of large-scale inference. Testing approaches, which measure evidence against a null hypothesis rather than effect magnitude, tend to…