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In observational studies, the observed association between an exposure and outcome of interest may be distorted by unobserved confounding. Causal sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the robustness of observed associations to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Rui Hu , Ted Westling

Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-21 Jason Hilton , Erengul Dodd , Jonathan J. Forster , Peter W. F. Smith

In interventional health studies, causal mediation analysis can be employed to investigate mechanisms through which the intervention affects the targeted health outcome. Identifying direct and indirect (i.e. mediated) effects from empirical…

Estimating an individual's potential response to continuously varied treatments is crucial for addressing causal questions across diverse domains, from healthcare to social sciences. However, existing methods are limited either to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Shutong Chen , Yang Li

When longitudinal outcomes are evaluated in mortal populations, their non-existence after death complicates the analysis and its causal interpretation. Where popular methods often merge longitudinal outcome and survival into one scale or…

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Investigators are often interested in how a treatment affects an outcome for units responding to treatment in a certain way. We may wish to know the effect among units that, for example, meaningfully implemented an intervention, passed an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Chad Hazlett , Nina McMurry , Tanvi Shinkre

When treatment policy estimands are of interest, clinical trials often attempt to collect patient data after intercurrent events (ICEs), although such data are often limited. Retrieved dropout imputation methods, which use pre-ICE and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Brendah Nansereko , Marcel Wolbers , James R. Carpenter , Jonathan W. Bartlett

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Establishing cause-effect relationships from observational data often relies on untestable assumptions. It is crucial to know whether, and to what extent, the conclusions drawn from non-experimental studies are robust to potential…

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

In most real-world systems units are interconnected and can be represented as networks consisting of nodes and edges. For instance, in social systems individuals can have social ties, family or financial relationships. In settings where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-31 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Albert Wu , Edoardo Airoldi

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Gözde Sert , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Anirban Bhattacharya

Safety analyses in terms of adverse events (AEs) are an important aspect of benefit-risk assessments of therapies. Compared to efficacy analyses AE analyses are often rather simplistic. The probability of an AE of a specific type is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-20 Regina Stegherr , Claudia Schmoor , Michael Lübbert , Tim Friede , Jan Beyersmann

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

With increasing data availability, causal effects can be evaluated across different data sets, both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. RCTs isolate the effect of the treatment from that of unwanted (confounding)…

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