Related papers: How to Compare Copula Forecasts?
In the last decade, simplified vine copula models have been an active area of research. They build a high dimensional probability density from the product of marginals densities and bivariate copula densities. Besides parametric models,…
Two goodness-of-fit tests for copulas are being investigated. The first one deals with the case of elliptical copulas and the second one deals with independent copulas. These tests result from the expansion of the projection pursuit…
Use copula to model dependency of variable extends multivariate gaussian assumption. In this paper we first empirically studied copula regression model with continous response. Both simulation study and real data study are given. Secondly…
A Bayesian framework is attractive in the context of prediction, but a fast recursive update of the predictive distribution has apparently been out of reach, in part because Monte Carlo methods are generally used to compute the predictive.…
We propose a new highly flexible and tractable Bayesian approach to undertake variable selection in non-Gaussian regression models. It uses a copula decomposition for the joint distribution of observations on the dependent variable. This…
Multi-step forecasting is often described through a simple rule of thumb: recursive strategies are said to have high bias and low variance, while direct strategies are said to have low bias and high variance. We revisit this belief by…
Our purpose is to model the dependence between two random variables, taking into account a priori knowledge on these variables. For example, in many applications (oceanography, finance...), there exists an order relation between the two…
We demonstrate how the uncertainty of parameter point estimates can be assessed in a maximum likelihood framework in order to prevent overfitting and erroneous detection of time-inhomogeneity. The class of models we consider are regular…
We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…
In probability and statistics, copulas play important roles theoretically as well as to address a wide range of problems in various application areas. We introduce the concept of multivariate discrete copulas, discuss their equivalence to…
The empirical copula process, a fundamental tool for copula inference, is studied in the high dimensional regime where the dimension is allowed to grow to infinity exponentially in the sample size. Under natural, weak smoothness assumptions…
Weak convergence of the empirical copula process is shown to hold under the assumption that the first-order partial derivatives of the copula exist and are continuous on certain subsets of the unit hypercube. The assumption is…
After reviewing a large body of literature on the modeling of bivariate discrete distributions with finite support, \cite{Gee20} made a compelling case for the use of $I$-projections in the sense of \cite{Csi75} as a sound way to attempt to…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
In this work we study the problem of constructing stochastic processes with a predetermined covariance decay by parameterizing its marginals and a given family of copulas. We show that the proposed methodology is compatibility-free and…
This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…
Many risk-sensitive applications require well-calibrated prediction sets over multiple, potentially correlated target variables, for which the prediction algorithm may report correlated errors. In this work, we aim to construct the…
Several procedures have been recently proposed to test the simplifying assumption for conditional copulas. Instead of considering pointwise conditioning events, we study the constancy of the conditional dependence structure when some…
We propose the extension of Fr\'{e}chet-Hoeffding copula bounds for circular data. The copula is a powerful tool for describing the dependency of random variables. In two dimensions, the Fr\'{e}chet-Hoeffding upper (lower) bound indicates…
When modeling the distribution of a multivariate continuous random vector using the so-called \emph{copula approach}, it is not uncommon to have ties in the coordinate samples of the available data because of rounding or lack of measurement…