Related papers: How to Compare Copula Forecasts?
Copula is a powerful tool to model multivariate data. We propose the modelling of intraday financial returns of multiple assets through copula. The problem originates due to the asynchronous nature of intraday financial data. We propose a…
Testing copula hypothesis is of fundamental importance in the applications of copula theory. In this paper we proposed a copula hypothesis testing with copula entropy. Since copula entropy is a unified theory in probability and therefore…
Copulas. We study the model risk of multivariate risk models in a comprehensive empirical study on Copula-GARCH models used for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. To determine whether model risk inherent in the forecasting of…
We determine under which conditions three bivariate copulas are compatible, viz. they are the bivariate marginals of the same trivariate copula, and, then, construct the class of these copulas. In particular, the upper and lower bounds for…
When scholars study joint distributions of multiple variables, copulas are useful. However, if the variables are not linearly correlated with each other yet are still not independent, most of conventional copulas are not up to the task.…
We propose a score test for dependence predictability in conditional copulas that is robust to temporal instabilities. Our semiparametric procedure accommodates flexible dynamics in the marginal processes and remains agnostic about the…
The empirical beta copula is a simple but effective smoother of the empirical copula. Because it is a genuine copula, from which, moreover, it is particularly easy to sample, it is reasonable to expect that resampling procedures based on…
We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…
In this article, a copula-based method for mixed regression models is proposed, where the conditional distribution of the response variable, given covariates, is modelled by a parametric family of continuous or discrete distributions, and…
Forecasts for uncertain future events should be probabilistic. Probabilistic forecasts are commonly issued as prediction intervals, which provide a measure of uncertainty in the unknown outcome whilst being easier to understand and…
We propose a copula-based measure of asymmetry between the lower and upper tail probabilities of bivariate distributions. The proposed measure has a simple form and possesses some desirable properties as a measure of asymmetry. The limit of…
We describe here a new method to estimate copula measure. From N observations of two variables X and Y, we draw a huge number m of subsamples (size n<N), and we compute the joint ranks in these subsamples. Then, for each bivariate rank…
Many time series applications require access to multi-step forecast trajectories in the form of sample paths. Recently, time series foundation models have leveraged multi-step lookahead predictions to improve the quality and efficiency of…
We use the copula approach to study the structure of dependence between sell-side analysts' consensus recommendations and subsequent security returns, with a focus on asymmetric tail dependence. We match monthly vintages of I/B/E/S…
Factor models are a parsimonious way to explain the dependence of variables using several latent variables. In Gaussian 1-factor and structural factor models (such as bi-factor, oblique factor) and their factor copula counterparts, factor…
Tests of equality of copulas between two samples are introduced and studied using the empirical Bernstein copula process. Three statistics are proposed and their asymptotic properties are established. Besides, a subsampling Bernstein…
New nonparametric tests of copula exchangeability and radial symmetry are proposed. The novel aspect of the tests is a resampling procedure that exploits group invariance conditions associated with the relevant symmetry hypothesis. They may…
Instance-wise feature selection and ranking methods can achieve a good selection of task-friendly features for each sample in the context of neural networks. However, existing approaches that assume feature subsets to be independent are…
The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is…
The popular choice of using a $direct$ forecasting scheme implies that the individual predictions do not contain information on cross-horizon dependence. However, this dependence is needed if the forecaster has to construct, based on…