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Thompson Sampling, one of the oldest heuristics for solving multi-armed bandits, has recently been shown to demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. The empirical success has led to great interests in theoretical understanding of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-10-29 Lihong Li

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 George Whittle , Juliusz Ziomek , Jacob Rawling , Maike A. Osborne

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

The rise of large-scale pretrained models has made it feasible to generate predictive or synthetic features at low cost, raising the question of how to incorporate such surrogate predictions into downstream decision-making. We study this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Hao Yan , Heyan Zhang , Yongyi Guo

Gaussian processes are the gold standard for many real-world modeling problems, especially in cases where a model's success hinges upon its ability to faithfully represent predictive uncertainty. These problems typically exist as parts of…

Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-07 Botond Cseke , Andrew Zammit Mangion , Tom Heskes , Guido Sanguinetti

It is well known that the Lasso can be interpreted as a Bayesian posterior mode estimate with a Laplacian prior. Obtaining samples from the full posterior distribution, the Bayesian Lasso, confers major advantages in performance as compared…

Computation · Statistics 2018-01-09 Marcela Mendoza , Alexis Allegra , Todd P. Coleman

Bayesian strategies for contextual bandits have proved promising in single-state reinforcement learning tasks by modeling uncertainty using context information from the environment. In this paper, we propose Greedy Bandits with Sampled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-03 Dom Huh

It is well-known that the posterior density of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian likelihood is also Gaussian, hence completely described by its covariance and expectation. Sampling from a Gaussian posterior may be…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Daniela Calvetti , Erkki Somersalo

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

We define a novel class of additive models, called Extended Latent Gaussian Models, that allow for a wide range of response distributions and flexible relationships between the additive predictor and mean response. The new class covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Alex Stringer , Patrick Brown , Jamie Stafford

Recent advances in contextual bandit optimization and reinforcement learning have garnered interest in applying these methods to real-world sequential decision making problems. Real-world applications frequently have constraints with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Samuel Daulton , Shaun Singh , Vashist Avadhanula , Drew Dimmery , Eytan Bakshy

This work is motivated by the analysis of ecological interaction networks. Poisson stochastic blockmodels are widely used in this field to decipher the structure that underlies a weighted network, while accounting for covariate effects.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Sophie Donnet , Stéphane Robin

Laplace approximation is a very useful tool in Bayesian inference and it claims a nearly Gaussian behavior of the posterior. \cite{SpLaplace2022} established some rather accurate finite sample results about the quality of Laplace…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Vladimir Spokoiny

Bayesian hierarchical models have been demonstrated to provide efficient algorithms for finding sparse solutions to ill-posed inverse problems. The models comprise typically a conditionally Gaussian prior model for the unknown, augmented by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Daniela Calvetti , Erkki Somersalo

This paper introduces a new principled approach for off-policy learning in contextual bandits. Unlike previous work, our approach does not derive learning principles from intractable or loose bounds. We analyse the problem through the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-30 Otmane Sakhi , Pierre Alquier , Nicolas Chopin

Policy inference plays an essential role in the contextual bandit problem. In this paper, we use empirical likelihood to develop a Bayesian inference method for the joint analysis of multiple contextual bandit policies in finite sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jiangrong Ouyang , Mingming Gong , Howard Bondell

Bayesian estimation of Gaussian graphical models has proven to be challenging because the conjugate prior distribution on the Gaussian precision matrix, the G-Wishart distribution, has a doubly intractable partition function. Recent…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-09-10 Max Hinne , Alex Lenkoski , Tom Heskes , Marcel van Gerven

Motivated by applications in online bidding and sleeping bandits, we examine the problem of contextual bandits with cross learning, where the learner observes the loss associated with the action across all possible contexts, not just the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Ruiyuan Huang , Zengfeng Huang

A central problem in sequential decision making is to develop algorithms that are practical and computationally efficient, yet support the use of flexible, general-purpose models. Focusing on the contextual bandit problem, recent progress…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-14 Yinglun Zhu , Dylan J. Foster , John Langford , Paul Mineiro