Related papers: LOO-PIT: A sensitive posterior test
I describe a new, open-source astronomical image-fitting program called Imfit, specialized for galaxies but potentially useful for other sources, which is fast, flexible, and highly extensible. A key characteristic of the program is an…
Obtaining accurately calibrated redshift distributions of photometric samples is one of the great challenges in photometric surveys like LSST, Euclid, HSC, KiDS, and DES. We present an inference methodology that combines the redshift…
We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…
In paired experiments, participants are grouped into pairs with similar characteristics, and one observation from each pair is randomly assigned to treatment. Because of both the pairing and the randomization, the treatment and control…
In this work, we introduce statistical testing under distributional shifts. We are interested in the hypothesis $P^* \in H_0$ for a target distribution $P^*$, but observe data from a different distribution $Q^*$. We assume that $P^*$ is…
Statistical inference of analytically non-tractable posteriors is a difficult problem because of marginalization of correlated variables and stochastic methods such as MCMC and VI are commonly used. We argue that stochastic KL divergence…
We study the statistical characteristics of a box-fitting algorithm to analyze stellar photometric time series in the search for periodic transits by extrasolar planets. The algorithm searches for signals characterized by a periodic…
Scientific computer simulations cannot represent all scales in realistic applications. To bridge this model-data gap, parameters are injected into models and constrained with noisy data using Bayesian inversion. To reduce the number of…
The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…
Least-squares fits are an important tool in many data analysis applications. In this paper, we review theoretical results, which are relevant for their application to data from counting experiments. Using a simple example, we illustrate the…
In the standard (classic) approach, galaxy clustering measurements from spectroscopic surveys are compressed into baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift space distortions measurements, which in turn can be compared to cosmological…
In recent decades, multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has surged in popularity for population inference. However, the validity of the estimates can depend on details of the model, and there is currently little research on…
The development of a Large Airfoil Model (LAM), a transformative approach for answering technical questions on airfoil aerodynamics, requires a vast dataset and a model to leverage it. To build this foundation, a novel probabilistic machine…
We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…
Many astrophysical analyses depend on estimates of redshifts (a proxy for distance) determined from photometric (i.e., imaging) data alone. Inaccurate estimates of photometric redshift uncertainties can result in large systematic errors.…
This work investigates the temporal distribution of glitches detected by LIGO, focusing on the morphological classification provided by the Gravity Spy project. Starting from the hypothesis that these events follow a Poisson process, we…
Power-law probability distributions arise often in the social and natural sciences. Statistics have been developed for estimating the exponent parameter as well as gauging goodness-of-fit to a power law. Yet paradoxically, many famous power…
An unbinned statistical test on cluster-like deviations from Poisson processes for point process data is introduced, presented in the context of time variability analysis of astrophysical sources in count rate experiments. The measure of…
Many experiments that aim at the direct detection of Dark Matter are able to distinguish a dominant background from the expected feeble signals, based on some measured discrimination parameter. We develop a statistical model for such…
Learning from label proportions (LLP), i.e., a challenging weakly-supervised learning task, aims to train a classifier by using bags of instances and the proportions of classes within bags, rather than annotated labels for each instance.…